Table 5. Distribution of Predicted 1992 Expenditures From Alternative Risk Adjustment Models and Actual 1992 Expenditures.
| Percentile | AAPCC* | Prospective Models | Concurrent Models | Actual Expenditures | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
|
|||||||||||
| PIPDCG | ADDCG | HCC | HCCP | HCCPH | PIPDCG | ADDCG | HCC | HCCP | HCCPH | |||
| Maximum | $7,710 | $26,324 | $21,543 | $44,137 | $78,176 | $75,363 | $38,356 | $40,448 | $97,955 | $200,253 | $205,806 | $1,533,060 |
| 99 | 6,642 | 14,768 | 14,264 | 16,364 | 16,724 | 17,491 | 31,207 | 27,548 | 34,570 | 35,089 | 36,695 | 57,423 |
| 95 | 5,687 | 9,330 | 9,495 | 10,202 | 10,201 | 10,397 | 23,519 | 17,801 | 18,730 | 18,114 | 20,283 | 22,810 |
| 90 | 5,085 | 7,236 | 7,324 | 7,818 | 7,762 | 7,688 | 14,060 | 13,345 | 12,175 | 11,790 | 13,767 | 12,227 |
| 75 | 4,571 | 3,935 | 5,031 | 4,853 | 4,826 | 4,726 | 1,413 | 4,639 | 4,442 | 4,369 | 3,279 | 2,917 |
| 50 | 3,614 | 2,899 | 2,919 | 2,845 | 2,803 | 2,790 | 851 | 1,045 | 1,086 | 1,006 | 284 | 516 |
| 25 | 2,902 | 2,258 | 1,965 | 1,796 | 1,751 | 1,782 | 682 | 619 | 204 | 261 | 195 | 95 |
| 10 | 2,386 | 1,859 | 1,239 | 1,411 | 1,349 | 1,371 | 546 | 336 | 96 | 193 | 160 | 0 |
| 5 | 2,386 | 1,859 | 892 | 1,162 | 1,098 | 1,113 | 546 | 22 | -64 | 76 | -74 | 0 |
| 1 | 2,386 | 1,859 | 735 | 1,162 | 1,098 | 1,113 | 393 | -227 | -407 | -179 | -101 | 0 |
| Minimum | 2,386 | 1,859 | 735 | 1,162 | 1,098 | 1,113 | 393 | -227 | -407 | -179 | -101 | 0 |
*
Represented by 12 age-sex cells and Medicaid eligibility.
NOTE: Predicted values are for validation sample half. All expenditures (including “actual expenditures”) represent annualized amounts.
SOURCE: 1991 and 1992 Medicare claims