Table 5. Estimated Demonstration Impacts on Medicare Services.
| First Demonstration Year | Project I | Project P | Project H | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
|
|
||||
| Estimated Impact (p-value) |
Control Group Mean | Estimated Impact (p-value) |
Control Group Mean | Estimated Impact (p-value) |
Control Group Mean | |
| Number of Observations1 | 1,110 | — | 586 | — | 334 | — |
| Inpatient Hospital | ||||||
| Any Admission (Percent) | 2.2 (.46) |
52.5 | -1.5 (.71) |
61.4 |
*10.0 (.06) |
46.1 |
| Number of Admissions | .03 (.71) |
1.12 | .03 (.83) |
1.32 |
*.31 (.06) |
0.90 |
| Reimbursement | -$154 (.75) |
$5,799 | $148 (.83) |
$6,472 | $2,086 (.14) |
$8,211 |
| Number of Emergency Room Visits | -.01 (.90) |
1.37 | -.02 (.88) |
1.45 | **.85 (.01) | .99 |
| Total Medicare Reimbursement | -$585 (.48) |
$10,481 | $801 (.52) |
$12,851 | $2,280 (.34) |
$16,212 |
| Total Medicare Reimbursement per Month Alive | -$35 (.57) |
$957 | -$31 (.79) |
$1,358 | $175 (.35) |
$1,460 |
Statistically significant at the 0.10 level using a two-tailed test.
Statistically significant at the 0.01 level using a two-tailed test.
A full year of claims data were available for only that subset of beneficiaries who enrolled in the demonstration prior to 1995. We did have 6 months of data for all enrollees. A comparison of impact estimates measured over 6 months did not differ for beneficiaries with a full year of claims and those with only 6 months.
NOTES: Estimates were obtained using a logit model for any admission, a Tobit model for hospital reimbursement, and ordinary least squares regression for the other outcomes. Number of admissions and visits were also estimated with ordered logit models which yielded similar results to those presented in this table.
SOURCE: Medicare's National Claims History files 1993-1995.