Table 2.
Published results using the PRIME and earlier versions.
| Scenario | Population of interest | Changes to lifestyle parameters | Baseline health burden (annual deaths, unless specified otherwise)1 | Primary scenario results (change in deaths per year) | Secondary scenario results | Reference |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Impact of 17.5% tax on foods containing saturated fat | UK, 2003 |
Total energy intake: +2.2% Saturated fat: −0.13% energy (absolute) Salt: +5.2% Fruit and vegetables: −1.2% |
CVD: 232,722 | CVD: +2,500 to +3,500 | Tax scenario based on nutrient profile model including saturated fat, salt, and sugar, annual deaths: −2,100 to −2,500 | [53] |
|
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| Impact of 32.5% tax on unhealthy foods combined with 17.5% subsidy on fruit and vegetables | UK, 2005 |
Total energy intake: +0.35% Saturated fat: +0.84% Salt: −0.45% Fruitand vegetables: +10.95% |
TOTAL: 198,552 CHD: 100,936 Stroke: 57,646 Cancer: 39,970 |
TOTAL: −3,689 to −6,435 CHD: −1,584 to −1,776 Stroke: −1,507 to −1,532 Cancer: −597 to −3,127 |
Percentage of weekly income lost to tax: lowest income quintile—0.86 (0.70, 1.01) Highest income quintile—0.09 (0.07, 0.10) |
[54] |
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| Population achieves government recommendations for healthy diet | UK, 2007 |
Fruit and vegetables: 347 → 440 g/d Fibre: 15.4 → 18.0 g/d Total fat: 37.2 → 33.0% energy Saturated fat: 14.1 → 10.0% energy Salt: 8.9 → 6.0 g/d |
TOTAL: 193,947 CHD: 91,458 Stroke: 53,186 Cancer: 49,303 |
TOTAL: −33,157 (−29,055, −37,246) CHD: −20,800 (−17,845, −24,069) Stroke: −5,876 (−3,856, −7,364) Cancer: −6,481 (−4,487, −8,353) |
Percentage of dietary related deaths averted in four countries of UK:
England: 13.8% Scotland: 18.3% Wales: 15.0% Northern Ireland: 18.9% |
[20] |
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| Geographic inequality in dietary quality between Scotland and England is removed | Scotland, 2007–09 |
Fruit and vegetables: 308 → 351 g/d Fibre: 15.0 → 15.1 g/d Total fat: 98.1 → 94.6 g/d Saturated fat: 37.8 → 35.7 g/d MUFA: 36.3 → 35.3 g/d PUFA: 17.5 → 17.3 g/d Dietary cholesterol: 268 → 265 mg/d Salt: 7.5 → 7.0 g/d |
TOTAL: 70,753 CHD: 28,029 Stroke: 15,999 Cancer: 26,725 |
TOTAL: −6,353 (−5,217, −7,957) CHD: −3,575 (−2,896, −4,437) Stroke: −1,299 (−615, −2,051) Cancer: −1,479 (−1,170, −1,848) |
Percentage of “mortality gap” between Scotland and England closed by removing dietary inequalities: 40% (33%, 51%) | [56] |
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| Population achieves diet with 50% less livestock products, balanced by increase in plant commodities | UK, 2008 |
Fruit and vegetables: 290 → 473 g/d Fibre: 13.5 → 17.7 g/d Total fat: 86.1 → 81.5 g/d Saturated fat: 33.8 → 29.7 g/d MUFA: 31.5 → 29.7 g/d PUFA: 15.2 → 16.7 g/d Dietary cholesterol: 227 → 153 mg/d Salt: 6.2 → 6.0 g/d |
TOTAL: 191,368 CVD: 141,240 Cancer: 50,128 |
TOTAL: −36,910 (−30,236, −43,616) CVD: −28,674 (−22,001, −34,766) Cancer: −8,236 (−5,798, −10,232) |
19% reduction in UK agriculture GHG emissions and 42% reduction in land use. | [55, 57] |
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| Impact of a £2.72/tonne CO2e/100 g greenhouse gas tax on foods | UK, 2010 |
Fruit and vegetables: 344 → 344 g/d Fibre: 13.1 → 13.1 g/d Total fat: 84.2 → 82.4 g/d Saturated fat: 32.5 → 31.6 g/d MUFA: 31.0 → 30.3 g/d PUFA: 15.3 → 15.2 g/d Dietary cholesterol: 230 → 223 mg/d Salt: 6.3 → 6.2 g/d |
TOTAL: 179,615 CVD: 129,908 Cancer: 49,707 |
TOTAL: −1,207 (−1,003, −1,431) CVD: −961 (−723, −1,211) Cancer: −448 (−279, −613) |
Annual reduction in GHG emissions: 18,683 ktCO2e (14,665, 22,889) Annual revenue generated from tax: £2,023 m (£1,980 m, £2,064 m) |
[22] |
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| Population achieving optimal level of alcohol consumption to reduce alcohol-related chronic disease | England, 2006 |
Mean alcohol consumption in drinkers: 13.1 → 5.0 g/d Percentage of nondrinkers in population: 29.0% → 29.0% |
TOTAL: 170,617 CVD: 125,767 Cancer: 33,304 Liver cirrhosis: 5,783 |
TOTAL: −4,579 (−2,544, −6,590) CVD: +843 (−1,085, +2,645) Cancer: −2,668 (−2,103, −3,210) Liver cirrhosis: −2,828 (−2,508, −3,072) |
Impact of moving all nondrinkers into current alcohol consumption distribution on annual deaths: +3,160 (−436, +6,409) | [13] |
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| Impact of 10% tax on sugar-sweetened beverages | Ireland, 2007 | Total energy intake: −2.1 kcal/d (−1.7, −2.6) | Number of people with BMI ≥ 30: 495,300 | Number of people with BMI ≥ 30: −6,170 (−4,240, −8,060) |
Percentage reduction in obesity by subgroups
Low consumers: −0.5% (−0.3%, −0.6%) Regular consumers: −3.3% (−2.3%, −4.4%) Low income: −0.6% (−0.4%, −0.8%) High income: −0.7% (−0.5%, −1.0%) |
[52] |
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| Impact of 20% tax on sugar-sweetened beverages | UK, 2010 | Total energy intake: −4.0 kcal/d (−5.2, −2.7) | Number of people with BMI ≥ 30: 13,877,000 | Number of people with BMI ≥ 30: −180,400 (−247,100, −109,500) |
Percentage reduction in obesity by subgroups
Lowest income: −1.3% (−2.0%, −0.3%) Highest income: −2.1% (−2.9%, −1.3%) 16–29: −7.6% (−8.6%, −6.4%) 30–49: −1.3% (−1.7%, −0.8%) 50+: +0.2% (−0.2%, +0.5%) |
[51] |
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| Population achieves government recommendations for healthy diet | Canada, 2004 |
Fruit and vegetables: 460 → 963 g/d Fibre: 19 → 36 g/d MUFA: 12.7 → 14.4% energy PUFA: 5.5 → 6.0% energy Saturated fat: 10.2 → 10.0% energy Salt: 9.0 → 5.8 g/d |
TOTAL: 85,527 |
TOTAL: −30,540 (−24,953, −34,989) CVD: −24,711 (−19,432, −28,713) Cancer: −5,829 (−3,985, −7,368) |
[50] | |
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| Population increases fruit consumption by one portion per day | UK, 2011, adults aged 50 and over | Fruit and vegetables: 344 → 440 g/d (with 70% compliance) | CVD: 95,153 | CVD: −8,500 (−6,200, −10,800) | Impact of extending to population aged 30 and over, annual deaths: −8,800 (−6,500, −11,100) | [40] |
1Only includes deaths from diseases where risk factors that are changed in the scenario are associated with mortality (e.g., diet-related cancers include colorectal cancer, mouth, larynx and pharynx cancer, stomach cancer, and lung cancer; alcohol-related CVD includes CHD, stroke, and hypertensive disease).