1. Prognostic versus diagnostic prediction model
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Define whether the aim is to review models to predict: |
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• Future events: prognostic prediction models |
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• Current (disease) status: diagnostic prediction models |
2. Intended scope of the review
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Define intended scope of the review and intended purpose of the models reviewed in it. Examples: |
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• Models to inform physicians' therapeutic decision making |
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• Models to inform referral to or withholding from invasive diagnostic testing |
3. Type of prediction modelling studies (see also
Box 1
)
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Define the type of prediction modelling studies to include. Examples of study types (Box 1): |
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• Prediction model development without external validation in independent data |
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• Prediction model development with external validation in independent data |
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• External model validation, possibly with model updating |
4. Target population to whom the prediction model applies
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Define the target population relevant to the review scope. Examples: |
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• Women with diagnosed breast cancer |
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• Healthy adult men in the general population |
5. Outcome to be predicted
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Define the outcome of interest to be predicted: |
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• Specific future event, such as a fatal or non-fatal coronary heart disease |
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• Specific diagnostic target disease, such as presence of lung embolism |
6. Time span of prediction
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Define over what specific time period the outcome is predicted (prognostic models only). Example: |
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• Event within a specific time interval, such as event within 3 months, 1 year, or 10 years |
7. Intended moment of using the model
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The systematic review may focus on models to be used at a specific moment in time. Examples: |
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• Models to be used at the moment of diagnosis of a particular disease |
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• Models to be used preoperatively to predict the risk of postoperative complications |
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• Models to be used in asymptomatic adults to detect undiagnosed type 2 diabetes mellitus |