Table 5.

Estimated area-level random effects from Bayesian spatial survival models

		Area random-effects (95% CrI)
Model	Description 1	Spatial (spat_σ 2 u) 2	Unstructured (spat_σ 2 v) 3	Total (spat_σ 2 ) 4	Spatial fraction 5 (95% CrI)
7	Null (no covariates) only area random effects: spat_u j & spat_v j	0.018 (0.016, 0.23)	0.006 (0.004, 0.012)	0.024 (0.012, 0.28)	0.70 (0.51, 0.82)
8	Individual covariates	0.010 (0.005, 0.018)	0.005 (0.002, 0.011)	0.015 (0.009, 0.024)	0.64 (0.38, 0.86)
9	Individual covariates & area remoteness	0.007 (0.003, 0.015)	0.005 (0.002, 0.010)	0.012 (0.006, 0.021)	0.56 (0.26, 0.82)
10	Individual covariates & area disadvantage	0.006 (0.003, 0.13)	0.005 (0.002, 0.011)	0.011 (0.007, 0.019)	0.58 (0.29, 0.81)
11	Full model: all individual & area covariates	0.006 (0.002, 0.013)	0.005 (0.003, 0.009)	0.011 (0.006, 0.019)	0.55 (0.35, 0.73)
12	All covariates with no spatial effect (spat_u j excluded)	-	0.009 (0.003, 0.013)
13	All covariates with no unstructured effect (spat_v j excluded)	0.009 (0.003, 0.014)	-

CrI: Credible Interval.

1. Models 8 to13 adjusted for all individual-level covariates; Model 9 also adjusted for area remoteness; Model 10 also adjusted for area disadvantage, Model 11 also adjusted for area remoteness and area disadvantage. Models 12 and 13 are adjusted for all covariates in Model 11 but exclude the spatial and unstructured random effects respectively.

2. Spatial variance (spat_σ ² _u).

3. Unstructured variance (spat_σ ² _v).

4. Total variance ().

5. Refer to Appendix 2 for details.