Table 3.
Marginal effect of the probability of retirement: single-year accrual, peak value, and option value
| Single-year accrual | Peak value | Option value | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Specification I: cohort dummies and no other control variables | |||
| Social security wealth | 0.06832 | 0.06414 | 0.05015 |
| [0.01342**] | [0.01323**] | [0.01198**] | |
| Retirement incentive | −1.26967 | −0.48582 | −0.24915 |
| Measures | [0.25436**] | [0.10639**] | [0.07332**] |
| Specification II: cohort dummies and demographic characteristics | |||
| Social security wealth | 0.03685 | 0.03443 | 0.02639 |
| [0.01244**] | [0.01236**] | [0.01100**] | |
| Retirement incentive | −0.73519 | −0.29096 | −0.16008 |
| [0.23490**] | [0.09914**] | [0.06714**] | |
| Specification III: cohort dummies and demographics, employment characteristics and earnings | |||
| Social security wealth | 0.04143 | 0.03922 | 0.03380 |
| [0.01606**] | [0.01582**] | [0.01442**] | |
| Retirement incentive | −0.50721 | −0.20205 | −0.012641 |
| Measures | [0.24375**] | [0.10132**] | [0.06278**] |
| Number of observations | 3,028 | 3,028 | 3,028 |
Notes: Demographic variables included in the regression are: cohort dummies, marital status, U.S. citizenship or permanent residency, total number of household residents, years of schooling, residence in a urban or rural area, and household ownership. Employment characteristics and earnings variables included in the regression are: occupation (white-collar, blue-collar, services, and farmer), type of job (employed or self-employed), tenure at firm, tenure at firm squared, labor market experience, labor market experience squared, labor income, labor income squared. Cohorts are defined as born between 1931-1935, 1936-1940, 1941-1945, and 1946-1950. The benchmark categories for the dummy variables are: cohort born between 1946-1950, year 2000, and white-collar occupation. Social security wealth, labor income variables, and the retirement incentive measures amounts are in $100,000 U.S. dollars.
estimates are significant at 5-percent level of confidence.
estimates are significant at 10-percent level of confidence. Standard errors were corrected with the Huber-White robust method for heteroskedasticity.
Source: Author’s calculation using the 2001 and 2003 Mexican Health and Aging Study (MHAS) and the 2000 Mexican National Employment Survey (ENE).