Table 1. Sources of Variance in VERVE Multiplier Estimates Used for Bootstrap Simulation.
| 2009 Data | Multiplier applied to raw Medicare FFS+D data* | Sampling distribution to allow extrapolation to 2014 when recruitment might begin | Reference for sampling distribution | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Source : Medicare Data | ||||
| % of patients with Fee-for-Service Medicare with part D, referent to patients with any type of Medicare coverage | 64% | 1.56 | Mean =0.64; range from 0.61 – 0.67 | Kaiser Family Foundation, 2012[16] McGuire et al, 2011[17] |
| Change in prevalence of biologic use | referent | 1.00 (i.e. no change) | Mean = 1.0; 95% CI = 0.90, 1.10; normal distribution | Zhang et al, 2013[18] |
| Source : CORRONA | ||||
| Prevalence of Medicare coverage among CORRONA-enrolled RA patients meeting VERVE eligibility criteria in 2009 | 47% | 2.11 | Mean = 0.47; range from 0.31, 0.63 | 10th/90th percentile of Medicare coverage across CORRONA sites for RA patients in CORRONA meeting trial ligibility criteria |
|
| ||||
| Final multiplier applied to 2009 raw Medicare data | 3.29 | Mean (IQR) = 3.40 (2.73; 3.73) | ||
FFS+D = fee-for-service (with part D); IQR = inter-quartile range
Note: numbers rounded to the 2nd digit after the decimal for simplicity of presentation
*
this multiplier is the reciprocal of the number in the column to the left. For example, (1 / 0.64) = 1.56