Table 4.

Average change in relative risk for a 1% rise in outlet densities.

Outlet type	Total crashes relative to population	HBD crashes relative to total crashes	SVN crashes relative to total crashes
Bar/pub density
Local	−0.003%	0.005%	0.004%
Spatially lagged	0.007%	−0.002%	0.030%
Restaurant density
Local	0.025%	0.003%	0.002%
Spatially lagged	−0.095%	0.013%	−0.023%
Off-premise density
Local	−0.035%	−0.004%	−0.056%
Spatially lagged	0.061%	0.018%	0.005%
Total retail density
Local	0.025%	−0.012%	−0.022%
Spatially Lagged	0.045%	−0.011%	−0.001%

Note: this table simulates the average change in predicted crash or alcohol-involvement risks if every ZIP code had one percent more establishments of the specified outlet type than it actually had in each year. This simulation is based on posterior effect estimates from Table 3. Changes for well-supported outlet density effects are shown in bold.