Figure 5. Predicted performance of a control program administered to dogs on arrival in US animal shelters.

(A) A vaccination (or other control measure) that removes individuals from the chain of transmission with 85% probability (κ = 0.15) within 24 h (α = 1 day) is predicted to eradicate CIV from shelters within six months. The simulations used 100 shelters with dog population size, intake rate, and outtake rate jointly sampled with replacement from the shelter demographics data, and R₀ = 3.9. White lines show medians and shaded areas enclose the 5^th to the 95^th percentiles of the simulation data. (B) Decreasing control efficacy to 75% can still achieve eradication in isolated shelters (blue region, solid line), however shelters that transfer dogs amongst themselves at the observed mean rate of τ = 0.1 would preserve CIV in a few shelters despite the vaccination program (red region, dashed line). (C) Further decreases in vaccine efficacy make eradication significantly less likely, particularly if shelters are connected through the transfer of dogs.