Figure 3.
(a–d) Extinction probability (number of populations going extinct divided by the number of replicates for a given set of parameter values) for scenarios of increase variability of the optimum phenotype Θ (βσ,Θ = 0.5, 1.0, 1.5, 2.0 × 10−2) with strength of selection from (a–d) s = 5, 8, 11, 13 × 10−2. Symbols identify probability of occurrence of point extreme events after climate change p(Ea): open rectangle, p(Ea) = 5 × 10−2; open circle, 7.5 × 10−2; solid rectangle, 10 × 10−2; solid circle, 12.5 × 10−2. Line type identifies rate of the directional change of the continuous climate variable. Solid line, βμ,Θ = 1 × 10−2; dashed line, βμ,Θ = 2 × 10−2.