Figure 6.

(a–d) Average across replicates with the same set of parameter values of the mean value of the phenotype in the population for scenarios of increase in the variability of the optimum phenotype Θ (β_σ,Θ = 0.5, 1.0, 1.5, 2.0 × 10⁻²) with strength of selection from (a–d) s = 5, 8, 11, 13 × 10⁻². Replicates with different probability of point extreme events after climate change are pooled together. Line type identifies magnitude of the directional trend of the optimum phenotype. Solid line, β_μ,Θ = 1 × 10⁻²; dashed line, β_μ,Θ = 2 × 10⁻². Vertical dashed segments represent standard deviations. In the electronic supplementary material, figure S7, I report the results for at the end of simulation time stratified for probability of occurrence of point extreme events.