Table 3.

GLM with logit link function for prediction of extinction (1)/persistence (0) of a population over a 10-year period (‘extinction window’) with predictors mean population size and mean additive genetic variance measured in the 10 years before the start of the ‘extinction’ window (i.e. in the ‘sampling window’), along with selection strength and probability of point extreme events (full model). All predictors were standardized and I report mean estimate and standard error of the regression coefficients. Reduced model is without mean population size as predictor.

	full, R2 = 0.82	reduced, R2 = 0.56
intercept	−2.58 (0.06)	−1.38 (0.03)
s	1.19 (0.04)	1.84 (0.03)
p(Ea)	0.14 (0.03)	0.24 (0.02)
	−3.09 (0.05)	—
	−0.25 (0.03)	−0.97 (0.03)