Table 1. Summary of model scenarios.

		Dog		Wild carnivore
Scenario number	Scenario name	Prevalence(%)	Mean effectivecontact	Prevalence (%)	Mean effective contact	Tiger-tiger Transmission	Infectious period (days)	Mortality (mean death per infection)	Population growth (λ)		Percentagepopulationsextinctin 50 years
1	Control	0	0	0	0	No	0	0	1		23.5%
2	Low risk dog	1.5	0.27	0	0	Yes	45	0.4	0.987		29.8%
3	High risk dog	5.0	1.66	0	0	Yes	45	0.4	0.958		66.1%
4	Low risk wildlife	0	0	0.6	1.65*	Yes	45	0.4	0.984		33.4%
5	High risk wildlife	0	0	6.2	3.87	Yes	45	0.4	0.956		74.5%
6	Low risk dog + wildlife	1.5	0.27	0.6	1.65*	Yes	45	0.4	0.980		35.7%
7	High risk dog + wildlife	5.0	1.66	6.2	3.87	Yes	45	0.4	0.955		79.3%
8	30 day infectious period	1.5	0.27	0.6	1.65*	Yes	30	0.4	0.995		30.3%
9	60 day infectious period	1.5	0.27	0.6	1.65*	Yes	60	0.4	0.966		40.7%
10	Low mortality	1.5	0.27	0.6	1.65*	Yes	45	0.3	0.982		34.0%
11	High mortality	1.5	0.27	0.6	1.65*	Yes	45	0.5	0.978		38.5%
12	3-year infection cycle	1.5 or 5.0	1.66	0.6 or 6.2	3.87	Yes	45	0.4	0.959		69.1%
13	5-year infection cycle	1.5 or 5.0	1.66	0.6 or 6.2	3.87	Yes	45	0.4	0.962		64.2%
14	7-year infection cycle	1.5 or 5.0	1.66	0.6 or 6.2	3.87	Yes	45	0.4	0.964		61.3%
15	Mean of 3 yr cycle	2.7	1.66	2.4	3.87	Yes	45	0.4	0.961		67.7%
16	Mean of 5 yr cycle	2.2	1.66	1.7	3.87	Yes	45	0.4	0.963		66.5%
17	Mean of 7 yr cycle	2.0	1.66	1.4	3.87	Yes	45	0.4	0.963		65.1%

Details of the fifteen canine distemper virus (CDV) infection scenarios used in the model simulations, used to determine tiger population growth rate (lambda, λ, calculated through 50 simulations with a founder population of 200 female and 100 male tigers) and 50-year extinction probability (calculated through 1,000 simulations as the proportion of simulations where population were reduced to zero before the run was complete).

*Derived from 3.4% of 551 kills per year comprising wild carnivore prey (30), and a median of one kill every 7.5 days (or 48.53 kills/year) (42).