Table 2.

Random intercept models predicting the number of temporary and permanent out-migrants at the household level as associated with village level NDVI for the Agincourt study site in 2007

Panel A: Temporary migration
	Model 1		Model 2		Model 3		Model 4
	b	sig.	b	sig.	b	sig.	b	sig.
Predictors
NDVI_sum	0.082	**			0.060	*
NDVI_intcpt			0.180	*			0.111
NDVI_slope			0.107	**			0.078	**
Controls
Age of HH head					0.004	***	0.004	***
Female HH head					0.010		0.009
Mozambican background					0.052		0.053	*
Masculinity proportion					0.457	***	0.457	***
Dependence proportion					−0.672	***	−0.671	***
Working proportion					0.982	***	0.980	***
Education proportion					0.037	***	0.037	***
SES					0.069	**	0.071	**
Prime age death					0.013		0.013
Intercept	−1.474	***	−2.444	***	−2.547	***	−3.183	***
Variance components
Between villages	0.012	**	0.011	**	0.011	**	0.011	**
Dispersion parameter	0.000		0.000		0.000		0.000
N	9625		9625		9367		9367

Panel B: Permanent migration
	Model 5		Model 6		Model 7		Model 8
	b	sig.	b sig.		b	sig.	b	sig.
Predictors
NDVI_sum	−0.079				−0.044
NDVI_intcpt			−0.101				−0.018
NDVI_slope			−0.026				0.006
Controls
Age of HH head					0.000		0.000
Female HH head					−0.083		−0.081
Mozambican background					0.027		0.045
Masculinity proportion					−0.341		−0.341
Dependence proportion					−0.601		−0.595
Working proportion					−0.343		−0.339
Education proportion					−0.019		−0.020
SES					−0.288	*	−0.291	*
Prime age death					0.134		0.133
Intercept	−3.702	***	−3.385	***	−2.694	***	−2.745	**
Variance components
Between villages	0.036		0.045		0.037		0.041
Dispersion parameter	4.634	***	4.458	***	4.337	***	4.235	***
N	9625		9625		9367		9367

Coefficients represent logged rates of events; Log transformed household size was used as offset in all models, resulting in a parameter estimate (for log(exposure)) constrains to 1;

^*p≤.05

^**p≤.01

^***p≤.001

Source: Agincourt Health and Demographic Surveillance Site (Agincourt HDSS) for the year 2007