Table 10. Top 10 models in terms of RMSE - baseline case. Forecasting: 12 steps and 24 steps ahead.
| 12 STEPS ahead (baseline case) | 24 STEPS ahead (baseline case) | ||
| Top 10 models | RMSE | Top 10 models | RMSE |
| AR(2)+S.D.+UR+IC+GI(J.) log 2004 | 1495400 | AR(6)+S.D.+UR+IC+GI(J.&F.S.) log 2004 | 3775883 |
| AR(5)+S.D.+UR+IC+GI(J.&F.S.) log 2004 | 1527588 | AR(5)+S.D.+UR+IC+GI(J.&F.S.) log 2004 | 3777359 |
| AR(3)+S.D.+UR+IC+GI(J.) log 2004 | 1534364 | AR(2)+S.D.+UR+IC+GI(J.&F.S.) log 2004 | 3830094 |
| AR(4)+S.D.+UR+IC+GI(J.&F.S.) log 2004 | 1544779 | AR(2)+S.D.+UR+IC+GI(J.) log 2004 | 3839694 |
| AR(2)+S.D.+UR+IC+GI(J.&F.S.) log 2004 | 1565497 | AR(7)+S.D.+UR+IC+GI(J.&F.S.) log 2004 | 3861489 |
| AR(6)+S.D.+UR+IC+GI(J.&F.S.) log 2004 | 1576811 | AR(4)+S.D.+UR+IC+GI(J.&F.S.) log 2004 | 3887615 |
| AR(6)+S.D.+UR+IC+GI(J.) log 2004 | 1593775 | AR(6)+S.D.+UR+IC+GI(J.) log 2004 | 3914935 |
| AR(7)+S.D.+UR+IC+GI(J.&F.S.) log 2004 | 1595086 | AR(3)+S.D.+UR+IC+GI(J.&F.S.) log 2004 | 3939222 |
| AR(3)+S.D.+UR+IC+GI(J.&F.S.) log 2004 | 1595117 | AR(7)+S.D.+UR+IC+GI(J.) log 2004 | 3973551 |
| AR(8)+S.D.+UR+IC+GI(J.&F.S.) log 2004 | 1608689 | AR(8)+S.D.+UR+IC+GI(J.&F.S.) log 2004 | 3999943 |
In each row, the following information is reported: the model, the number of lags, (eventual) exogenous regressors, the data transformation, the first year of the estimation sample.