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Health state transitions in two models of prostate cancer natural history. Screen-detectable cancers in both models progress from local-regional to distant stage. In the UMICH model, cancer can also progress to distant stage before becoming screen-detectable (horizontal dashed gray arrows). Cancer grade (Gleason score 2–7 or 8–10) is fixed in the FHCRC model but lower grade can progress to higher grade in the UMICH model (vertical dashed gray arrows).
