Table 1.
Prostate cancer cases and deaths extrapolated from SEER and effects of historical PSA screening predicted by two models in the year 2010. Counts are for US men ages 50–84 years.
| SEER | FHCRC | UMICH | |
|---|---|---|---|
|
|
|||
| Localized cases | |||
| Screen detections | |||
| Overdiagnoses | — | 65,500 | 41,300 |
| Early detections | — | 104,900 | 126,100 |
| Clinical detections | — | 51,000 | 53,700 |
| Total | 202,500 | 221,400 | 221,100 |
| Metastatic cases | |||
| Prediction under no screening | — | 24,300 | 25,100 |
| Effect of screening | — | −14,600 | −15,400 |
| Effect of other factors (not modeled) | — | −1,400 | −1,400 |
| Total | 8,300 | 8,300 | 8,300 |
| Prostate cancer deaths | |||
| Prediction under no screening or treatment | — | 33,600 | 34,800 |
| Effect of treatment | — | –4,000 | −3,100 |
| Effect of screening | — | –5,400 | −7,100 |
| Effect of other factors (not modeled) | — | –6,100 | −6,500 |
| Total | 18,100 | 18,100 | 18,100 |
SEER = Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results registries; PSA = prostate-specific antigen; FHCRC = Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center model; UMICH = University of Michigan model