Table 2.

Prostate cancer cases and deaths predicted by two models under three PSA screening policies: (A) continuation of recent PSA screening patterns (Continued), (B) continuation of recent PSA screening patterns restricted to men under 70 years (Age-restricted), and (C) discontinued PSA screening for all men (Discontinued) for the period 2013–2025. Counts are for US men ages 50–84 years.

	Continued (A)		Age-restricted (B)		Discontinued (C)		Percent relative effects of age-restricted vs discontinued screening 100 ×(A−B)/(B−C)
	FHCRC	UMICH	FHCRC	UMICH	FHCRC	UMICH	FHCRC	UMICH
Localized cases
Screen detections
Overdiagnoses	1,122,900	705,200	399,700	237,100	0	0	64.4	66.4
Early detections	1,763,600	2,071,400	1,130,000	1,163,900	0	0	35.9	43.8
Clinical detections	795,600	890,900	1,008,800	1,216,900	1,372,400	1,679,500	37.0	41.3
Total	3,682,100	3,667,400	2,538,400	2,617,800	1,372,400	1,679,500	49.5	52.8
Metastatic cases	127,900	129,300	186,200	202,600	271,100	291,300	40.7	45.3
Prostate cancer deaths
Base case PSA efficacy	283,500	284,600	296,400	306,900	319,400	342,000	35.9	38.9
Reduced PSA efficacy	284,300	285,400	290,300	299,400	301,800	320,700	33.9	39.6

PSA = prostate-specific antigen; FHCRC = Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center model; UMICH = University of Michigan model