Table 3. Models were calibrated using training and test data (75% and 25% randomly selected occurrence points respectively).

Model	General	Jan–Apr	May–Aug	Sep–Dec
No. of points	463	139	158	157
Mean training AUC	0.882	0.891	0.866	0.881
Mean test AUC	0.878	0.855	0.848	0.853
Test AUC standard deviation	0.012	0.025	0.025	0.022
Mean fractional predicted area	0.307	0.376	0.335	0.336
Training omission rate	0.097	0.098	0.098	0.098
Test omission rate	0.118	0.165	0.130	0.161
p value	3.948−40	2.495−9	3.795−10	1.154−8

Area under the curve (AUC) was calculated as an average of 30 model replicate runs using subsample run type. Mean AUC and omission rate values were calculated both for test and training data. The mean omission rates are calculated at an arbitrarily chosen cumulative threshold of 10. All model omission results performed significantly better than random (p<0.0001).