Table 1.
Parameter values for base case and sensitivity analyses
| |
|
Parameter range |
|
|
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Description | Base | Low | High | Distribution | Source |
|
Probabilities |
|
|
|
|
|
| Influenza and PPSVa vaccination |
Figure 2 |
-50% |
+50% |
Triangle |
[Figure 2] |
| Vaccination side effects (local reactions) |
0.13 |
0.06 |
0.20 |
Beta |
[23] |
| Influenza |
|
|
|
|
|
| Annual risk |
0.10 |
0.03 |
0.21 |
Beta |
[24] |
| Vaccine effectiveness |
0.58 |
0.34 |
0.74 |
Beta |
[25] |
| Clinic visit, given influenza |
0.62 |
0.52 |
0.72 |
Beta |
[26] |
| Hospitalization, given influenza |
0.04 |
0.01 |
0.07 |
Beta |
[26] |
| Increased risk of IPDb given influenza |
0.10 |
0.08 |
0.13 |
Beta |
[24] |
| Death given influenza hospitalization |
0.23 |
0.18 |
0.28 |
Beta |
[1,2] |
| IPD |
|
|
|
|
|
| Incidence, disability, mortality |
Table 2 |
-20% |
+20% |
Triangular |
[3], Estimate |
| Immunocompromised in cohort (%) |
Table 2 |
-20% |
+20% |
Triangular |
[3], Estimate |
| Vaccine serotype coverage (%) |
Table 2 |
-20% |
+20% |
Triangular |
[3], Estimate |
| PPSV vaccine effectiveness (yr post-vaccination) |
|
|
|
Triangular |
[27] |
| Year 1 |
0.80 |
0.60 |
0.90 |
|
|
| Year 5 |
0.58 |
0.31 |
0.80 |
|
|
| Year 10 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.10 |
|
|
| Excess mortality due to disability (per year) |
0.1 |
0.0 |
1.0 |
Triangular |
[24] |
|
Costs |
|
|
|
|
|
| Vaccination program, per targeted elder per year |
Figure 2 |
-50% |
+50% |
Triangular |
[Figure 2] |
| Influenza vaccine and administration |
$20.97 |
$13.11 |
$28.83 |
Gamma |
[28] |
| PPSV and administration |
$33.47 |
$16.74 |
$55.79 |
Gamma |
[24] |
| Vaccine side effect treatment |
$0.76 |
$0.68 |
$4.01 |
Gamma |
[28] |
| Influenza and IPD symptomatic treatment |
$5.00 |
$0.00 |
$10.00 |
Gamma |
[Estimate] |
| Influenza |
|
|
|
|
|
| Seeking clinic care |
$67.19 |
$56.62 |
$77.76 |
Gamma |
[28] |
| Clinic visit |
$158.72 |
$120.51 |
$196.92 |
Gamma |
[28] |
| Hospitalization without death |
$5,001 |
$4,714 |
$5,406 |
Gamma |
[28] |
| Hospitalization with death |
$10,244 |
$9,432 |
$11,173 |
Gamma |
[28] |
| IPD |
|
|
|
|
|
| Hospitalization without death |
$27,357 |
$25,224 |
$30,093 |
Gamma |
[24] |
| Hospitalization with death |
$37,688 |
$33,919 |
$41,458 |
Gamma |
[24] |
| Disability (annual) |
$12,683 |
$10,451 |
$14,914 |
Gamma |
[29] |
|
Durations |
|
|
|
|
|
| Vaccine side effects (days) |
3 |
1 |
8 |
Gamma |
[30] |
| Influenza, outpatient (days) |
7 |
3 |
10 |
Gamma |
[31] |
| Influenza, prior to seeking inpatient care (days) |
2 |
1 |
3 |
Gamma |
[Estimate] |
| Influenza, inpatient (days) |
7 |
4 |
10 |
Gamma |
[1] |
| IPD inpatient (days) |
12 |
9 |
15 |
Gamma |
[32] |
|
Utilities |
|
|
|
|
|
| One year of healthy life for >65 yr old (QALY) |
|
|
|
Uniform |
[33,34] |
| 65-70 years |
0.76 |
0.71 |
0.81 |
|
|
| 70-75 years |
0.74 |
0.69 |
0.79 |
|
|
| 75-80 years |
0.70 |
0.65 |
0.75 |
|
|
| 80-85 years |
0.63 |
0.58 |
0.68 |
|
|
| >85 years |
0.51 |
0.46 |
0.56 |
|
|
| Vaccine side effects |
0.95 |
0.71 |
1.00 |
Uniform |
[28] |
| Influenza, outpatient |
0.65 |
0.49 |
0.81 |
Uniform |
[28] |
| Influenza, inpatient |
0.50 |
0.38 |
0.63 |
Uniform |
[28] |
| IPD, inpatient |
0.20 |
0.15 |
0.25 |
Uniform |
[32] |
| IPD, disabled | 0.40 | 0.20 | 0.60 | Uniform | [35], Estimate |
aPneumococcal polysaccharide vaccine.
bInvasive pneumococcal disease.