Table IV.

Estimates of HIV transmission risk resulting from various treatment and prevention modeling assumptions.

Parameters/ modeling assumptions	Number of new infection in 1 year	Rate (1000/year)	Reduction in transmission (%)
Base model	2.73	23.2	–
Correct and consistent condom use (27% base model prevalence)
50%	1.95	16.6	0.28
75%	1.08	9.1	0.61
Syphilis (16.7% base model prevalence)
8%	1.38	11.8	0.49
5%	0.84	7	0.70
HSV-2 (90% base model prevalence)
45%	1.35	11.7	0.50
25%	0.78	6.5	0.72
Male circumcision (31% base model prevalence)
50%	2.58	22.1	0.05
75%	2.41	20.5	0.11
Persons on HARRT (base model is 0% adherent)
95% adherent	1.368	12.7	0.45
80% adherent	1.152	14.5	0.38
Treatment only
Syphilis & HSV2 (50%)	0.69	5.9	0.75
Syphilis & HSV2 (50%)	0.39	3.2	0.86
& HAART (95%)

Note: The base model parameter estimates listed in parentheses above are based on data among HIV-positive sexually active women and men in Mozambique in the three months prior to initiating highly active antiretroviral therapy.

Syphilis and HSV-2 parameters are based on treatment or suppressive therapy to reduce active sexually transmitted disease prevalence.