Figure 4.

Power to avoid spurious support for one divergence event when divergence times are random. The tendency of models (A–D)M_msBayes, (E–H)M_Ushaped, (I–L)M_Uniform, and (M–P)M_DPP to support one divergence event when there is random variation in divergence times as simulated under the ${\mathcal{ℳ}}_{\mathit{\text{msBayes}}}$ series of models. The plots illustrate histograms of the estimated posterior probability of the one divergence model, p(|τ|=1|B_ε(S^∗)), from analyses of 1000 datasets simulated under each of the ${\mathcal{ℳ}}_{\mathit{\text{msBayes}}}$ models. The 22 divergence times were randomly drawn as indicated above each column of plots, where time is respresented as millions of generations ago (MGA) according to a per-site rate of 1 × 10⁻⁸ mutations per generation. Four of the six data-generating models of the ${\mathcal{ℳ}}_{\mathit{\text{msBayes}}}$ series are shown; please see Additional file 1: Figure S17 for all results.