Figure 7. Comparison of random and risk-map based outbreaks for a single square mile of a medfly trapping network in Anaheim, CA.

Bars show mean values, and whiskers indicate SD. is the instantaneous estimate raised to the 14^th power, indicated by the grey horizontal line; p_r is the movement-based estimate with random outbreak locations; p_x indicate the probability of capture when outbreak locations are normally distributed and centered at the park (see Fig. 5) with x indicating the variance in outbreak location in meters.