Table 3.

Three counterfactuals exploring the cost of displacement

Counterfactual	Displacement rate	Replacement rate	Disbursement of DAHG	Cost in billions (90% confidence interval)
1	0	0	As observed	$152.8 billion (CI: 46.9, 277.6)
2	As estimated	Irrelevant	Monotonically increasing	$96.9 billion (CI: 0.5, 212.4)
3			As observed	$78.6 billion (CI: −23.7, 192.1)

Three counterfactuals are considered and compared with the baseline. In the baseline, displacement and replacement rates are those found via estimation, and the disbursement of DAH is as observed. Cost is the difference between baseline GHE and the counterfactuals’ GHE. GHE estimates are aggregated across all 119 countries and years of data. Ninety percent confidence intervals are calculated using 1000 draws from the variance–covariance matrix generated using the baseline estimation.