Table 2.

Risk of diabetes associated with IL-6 and CRP levels at entry

Type of adjustment	Quartile 1 HR (95% CI)	Quartile 2 HR (95% CI)	Quartile 3 HR (95% CI)	Quartile 4 HR (95% CI)	HR associated with doubling of biomarkers
					HR (95%CI)	P-value
			IL-6
IL6 range (pg/ml)	(0.15-1.15)	(1.16-1.80)	(1.81-2.82)	(2.83-88.63)	-	-
No-patients with Incident diabetes (n)	14	27	44	52	-	-
Crude Analysis (n=3,965; 3.45%)	1.00 (Ref)	1.70 (0.89-3.25)	2.86 (1.56-5.24)	3.45 (1.91-6.23)	1.47 (1.26-1.70)	<0.001
Model 1:	1.00 (Ref)	1.53 (0.80-2.93)	2.23 (1.20-4.13)	2.52 (1.37-4.63)	1.35 (1.15-1.58)	<0.001
Model 2:	1.00 (Ref)	1.30 (0.67-2.50)	1.74 (0.93-3.24)	1.93 (1.04-3.59)	1.29 (1.08-1.55)	0.005
Model 3:	1.00 (Ref)	1.18 (0.46-3.03)	1.76 (0.74-4.21)	1.89 (0.81-4.42)	1.36 (1.07-1.72)	0.01
			hsCRP
hs-CRP range (μg/ml)	(0.03-0.68)	(0.69-1.56)	(1.57-3.56)	(3.57-98.00)	-	-
No-patients with Incident diabetes (n)	10	23	55	49	-	-
Crude Analysis (n=3,965; 3.45%)	1.00 (Ref)	2.32 (1.10-4.87)	5.52 (2.82-10.84)	5.13 (2.60-10.14)	1.32 (1.20-1.45)	<0.001
Model 1:	1.00 (Ref)	2.17 (1.03-4.57)	4.64 (2.35-9.16)	4.15 (2.08-8.28)	1.28 (1.16-1.42)	<0.001
Model 2:	1.00 (Ref)	2.16 (1.00-4.70)	4.21 (2.06-8.60)	3.47 (1.67-7.20)	1.22 (1.10-1.36)	<0.001
Model 3:	1.00 (Ref)	2.84 (1.01-8.04)	3.15 (1.17-8.49)	3.20 (1.19-8.61)	1.22 (1.05-1.41)	0.01

Model 1: Adjusted for age, sex, race, square root baseline CD4 count , co-infection with hepatitis B or C, viral load and type of ART (stavudine, zidovudine (no stavudine), other ART or no ART); stratified by study. 10 participants including 1 event are excluded due to missing baseline covariates.

Model 2: Model 1 plus use of lipid lowering drugs, use of blood pressure lowering drugs and BMI; stratified by study. 32 participants including 2 events are excluded due to missing baseline covariates.

Model 3: Model 2 plus cigarette smoking status, LDL, HDL, and triglycerides; SMART participants only. 17 participants including 0 events are excluded due to missing baseline covariates.