Table 3.
Care System Switching Model Coefficients and Marginal Effects
| Baseline Model |
Model with Prior Decision |
|||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Coefficient | p-value | ΔP (Switched) | p-value | Coefficient | p-value | ΔP (Switched) | p-value | |
| Did not switch last time | −0.919 | .000 | −0.268 | .000 | ||||
| Age | ||||||||
| 1–4 | −0.646 | .000 | −0.164 | .000 | −0.512 | .000 | −0.118 | .000 |
| 5–12 | −0.556 | .000 | −0.146 | .000 | −0.452 | .000 | −0.107 | .000 |
| 13–17 | −0.298 | .000 | −0.087 | .000 | −0.216 | .000 | −0.056 | .000 |
| 18–22 | Omitted | Omitted | Omitted | Omitted | ||||
| 23–29 | −0.131 | .000 | −0.041 | .000 | −0.134 | .000 | −0.036 | .000 |
| 30–49 | −0.260 | .000 | −0.077 | .000 | −0.235 | .000 | −0.061 | .000 |
| 50–64 | −0.418 | .000 | −0.117 | .000 | −0.353 | .000 | −0.087 | .000 |
| Female | 0.063 | .000 | 0.015 | .000 | 0.055 | .000 | 0.012 | .000 |
| Product | ||||||||
| Group—broad PPO | Omitted | Omitted | Omitted | Omitted | ||||
| Group—medical home | −0.191 | .000 | −0.042 | .000 | −0.183 | .000 | −0.037 | .000 |
| Individual | −0.025 | .051 | −0.006 | .048 | −0.034 | .064 | −0.007 | .060 |
| Medicaid | 0.128 | .000 | 0.033 | .000 | 0.079 | .000 | 0.018 | .000 |
| Current overall health status | ||||||||
| Healthy user | Omitted | Omitted | Omitted | Omitted | ||||
| Low risk | −0.002 | .689 | 0.000 | .689 | 0.007 | .304 | 0.001 | .304 |
| Moderate risk | 0.001 | .892 | 0.000 | .892 | 0.004 | .503 | 0.001 | .503 |
| High risk | 0.101 | .000 | 0.026 | .000 | 0.082 | .000 | 0.018 | .000 |
| Very high risk | 0.239 | .000 | 0.064 | .000 | 0.167 | .000 | 0.039 | .000 |
| Current diagnoses | ||||||||
| Frailty | 0.072 | .000 | 0.018 | .000 | 0.055 | .000 | 0.012 | .000 |
| Diabetes | −0.062 | .000 | −0.015 | .000 | −0.048 | .000 | −0.010 | .000 |
| Depression | 0.006 | .142 | 0.001 | .143 | 0.013 | .007 | 0.003 | .007 |
| Hypertension | −0.092 | .000 | −0.022 | .000 | −0.077 | .000 | −0.017 | .000 |
| Hyperlipidemia | −0.179 | .000 | −0.042 | .000 | −0.133 | .000 | −0.028 | .000 |
| Current care system attribution | ||||||||
| Other systems | Omitted | Omitted | Omitted | Omitted | ||||
| Metro IDS 1 | −0.404 | .000 | −0.097 | .000 | −0.327 | .000 | −0.071 | .000 |
| Metro IDS 2 | −0.410 | .000 | −0.098 | .000 | −0.327 | .000 | −0.071 | .000 |
| Metro IDS 3 | −0.278 | .000 | −0.071 | .000 | −0.241 | .000 | −0.054 | .000 |
| Metro IDS 4 | −0.219 | .000 | −0.057 | .000 | −0.187 | .000 | −0.043 | .000 |
| Non-metro IDS 1 | −0.342 | .000 | −0.085 | .000 | −0.233 | .000 | −0.053 | .000 |
| Non-metro IDS 2 | −0.415 | .000 | −0.099 | .000 | −0.345 | .000 | −0.074 | .000 |
| Non-metro IDS 3 | −0.223 | .000 | −0.058 | .000 | −0.177 | .000 | −0.041 | .000 |
| Neighborhood effects | ||||||||
| % White, non-Hispanic | −0.0012 | .000 | −0.0003 | .000 | −0.0009 | .000 | −0.0002 | .000 |
| % Households nuclear families | 0.0000 | .759 | 0.0000 | .759 | 0.0000 | .830 | 0.0000 | .830 |
| % Households owner-occupied | −0.0007 | .000 | −0.0002 | .000 | −0.0003 | .019 | −0.0001 | .019 |
| % Foreign born | 0.0034 | .000 | 0.0008 | .000 | 0.0027 | .001 | 0.0006 | .001 |
| % HS diploma, no 4-year degree | −0.0014 | .008 | −0.0004 | .008 | −0.0024 | .000 | −0.0005 | .000 |
| % 4-year college degree | 0.0007 | .125 | 0.0002 | .125 | −0.0005 | .402 | −0.0001 | .402 |
| % Speaking English only | 0.0037 | .000 | 0.0009 | .000 | 0.0035 | .000 | 0.0008 | .000 |
| % Income below federal poverty limit | 0.0014 | .000 | 0.0003 | .000 | 0.0008 | .034 | 0.0002 | .034 |
| % SNAP recipients | 0.0004 | .393 | 0.0001 | .393 | 0.0002 | .701 | 0.0000 | .701 |
| Urban location | 0.0207 | .000 | 0.0051 | .000 | 0.0270 | .000 | 0.0059 | .000 |
| Constant | −0.658 | .000 | 0.019 | .806 | ||||
| N | 1400,349 | 785,501 | ||||||
| Chi-square p-value | 0.000 | 0.000 | ||||||
| Mean (switched) | 0.176 | 0.167 | ||||||