Table 2.
Results of model selection by AICc. Linear models linking haemosporidian infection and ecological predictors, for all lineages and for SW2 lineage only, are ranked by AICc. For visual convenience, only models that had an AICc weight >0.01 are shown. Yield is the mean wheat yield per country as provided by the FAO. The climate variable is a synthetic climatic predictor extracted from a PCA on the Bioclim dataset (Hijmans et al. 2005). Census and effective sizes are corncrake population size inferred, respectively, from field surveys (Schäffer and Koffijberg 2004) and genetic analyses.
| Adj. R² | F | df | AICc | ΔAICc | AICc weight | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| All lineages | ||||||
| Yield | 0.78 | 29.91 | 3 | −23.50 | 0.00 | 0.83 |
| Census size | 0.63 | 14.48 | 3 | −18.60 | 4.87 | 0.07 |
| Yield + Census size | 0.75 | 13.30 | 4 | −16.60 | 6.93 | 0.03 |
| Yield + Effective size | 0.75 | 12.96 | 4 | −16.40 | 7.12 | 0.02 |
| Yield + Climate | 0.75 | 12.82 | 4 | −16.30 | 7.20 | 0.02 |
| Climate | 0.45 | 7.54 | 3 | −15.10 | 8.39 | 0.01 |
| SW2 | ||||||
| Census size | 0.77 | 27.33 | 3 | −28.60 | 0.00 | 0.69 |
| Census size + Effective size | 0.84 | 21.51 | 4 | −26.00 | 2.61 | 0.19 |
| Yield | 0.58 | 11.84 | 3 | −23.30 | 5.40 | 0.05 |
| Census size + Climate | 0.77 | 14.77 | 4 | −23.10 | 5.50 | 0.04 |
| Census size + Yield | 0.73 | 11.78 | 4 | −21.50 | 7.16 | 0.02 |