FIGURE 2—

Health effects of a cap-and-trade system for added sugars on (a) obesity prevalence and (b) type 2 diabetes incidence.

Note. Reduction in obesity prevalence (% of population) and type 2 diabetes incidence (per 100 000 persons per year) over time among the US population aged 5 to 65 years under a simulated cap-and-trade policy involving a 20% cap on added sugars from current levels, achieved at a linear rate over 20 years. On each box plot, the central mark is the median result from 10 000 repeated simulations of the model, sampling from the input probability distributions of all parameters; the edges of the box plots are the 25th and 75th percentiles, the whiskers extend to the most extreme data points not considered outliers, and outliers (which are beyond the 99% confidence intervals) are plotted individually.