TABLE 1—

Comparative Effectiveness of a Cap-and-Trade System, a Sugar-Sweetened-Beverage (SSB) Tax, and an Added-Sugar Tax Over a 20-Year Planning Horizon

	Baseline Health Statistics		Cap-and-Trade Policy		SSB Tax		Added-Sugar Tax
Demographic Characteristics	Obesity Prevalence, % (SD)	Type 2 Diabetes Incidence, per 100 000 per Year (SD)	Decline in Obesity Prevalence, % (SD)	Decline in Type 2 Diabetes Incidence, per 100 000 per Year (SD)	Decline in Obesity Prevalence, % (SD)	Decline in Type 2 Diabetes Incidence, per 100 000 per Year (SD)	Decline in Obesity Prevalence, % (SD)	Decline in Type 2 Diabetes Incidence, per 100 000 per Year (SD)
Age group 5 to < 18 y
Male
Non-Hispanic White	7.1 (0.2)	2.0 (0.3)	0.6 (0.1)	0.02 (0.01)	0.2 (0.1)	0.01 (0.01)	0.8 (0.1)	0.02 (0.00)
Non-Hispanic Black	12.4 (0.3)	9.9 (0.1)	0.9 (0.6)	0.10 (0.01)	1.1 (0.1)	0.07 (0.01)	1.2 (0.1)	0.10 (0.02)
Mexican American	26.8 (0.4)	6.2 (0.5)	0.2 (0.3)	0.06 (0.01)	0.2 (0.1)	0.01 (0.01)	0.5 (0.2)	0.02 (0.00)
Other	11.8 (0.3)	4.7 (0.1)	1.7 (0.4)	0.14 (0.01)	0.5 (0.2)	0.05 (0.01)	0.7 (0.2)	0.05 (0.01)
Female
Non-Hispanic White	12.5 (0.3)	2.4 (0.4)	1.1 (0.2)	0.03 (0.01)	0.7 (2.0)	0.03 (0.01)	0.5 (0.1)	0.03 (0.00)
Non-Hispanic Black	22.0 (0.4)	11.7 (0.6)	0.6 (0.2)	0.14 (0.01)	1.3 (0.1)	0.12 (0.01)	1.3 (0.2)	0.15 (0.03)
Mexican American	13.0 (0.3)	7.3 (0.5)	2.0 (0.2)	0.18 (0.01)	0.0 (0.1)	0.01 (0.01)	0.0 (0.1)	0.02 (0.00)
Other	23.9 (0.4)	5.6 (0.1)	0.2 (0.2)	0.05 (0.01)	0.3 (0.1)	0.04 (0.01)	0.8 (0.3)	0.04 (0.00)
Age Group 18 to < 45 y
Male
Non-Hispanic White	33.3 (0.4)	240.9 (52.2)	1.1 (0.1)	13.0 (0.58)	1.2 (0.3)	5.66 (0.35)	0.2 (0.2)	4.04 (0.84)
Non-Hispanic Black	25.0 (0.4)	426.8 (56.4)	0.4 (0.3)	19.6 (0.54)	0.3 (0.3)	8.76 (0.34)	0.3 (0.2)	8.26 (1.71)
Mexican American	34.4 (0.4)	382.1 (56.2)	0.5 (0.2)	15.0 (0.45)	1.0 (0.1)	9.19 (0.38)	0.4 (0.3)	7.03 (1.46)
Other	40.4 (0.4)	350 (52.5)	2.3 (0.7)	22.0 (0.68)	3.3 (0.1)	15.4 (0.58)	1.9 (0.2)	9.98 (2.07)
Female
Non-Hispanic White	42.4 (0.4)	220.3 (51.9)	1.0 (0.4)	10.3 (0.50)	0.8 (0.2)	3.67 (0.27)	0.5 (0.2)	3.98 (0.82)
Non-Hispanic Black	52.3 (0.4)	390.2 (53.9)	4.6 (0.2)	32.5 (0.93)	4.6 (0.2)	22.1 (0.73)	3.5 (0.1)	17.8 (3.71)
Mexican American	58.1 (0.4)	349.3 (52.9)	3.1 (0.2)	20.6 (0.65)	2.2 (0.2)	11.3 (0.45)	1.4 (0.1)	8.22 (1.70)
Other	51.1 (0.5)	320.0 (54.4)	3.0 (0.3)	20.1 (0.71)	1.9 (0.2)	13.0 (0.56)	1.9 (0.2)	10.7 (2.23)
Age group 45–65 y
Male
Non-Hispanic White	39.1 (0.4)	853.7 (125.0)	2.8 (0.3)	50.8 (1.55)	3.7 (0.1)	40.1 (1.32)	3.2 (0.2)	39.0 (8.12)
Non-Hispanic Black	26.1 (0.4)	1512.3 (123.2)	0.2 (0.7)	63.2 (1.07)	0.3 (0.4)	23.2 (0.49)	0.1 (0.2)	25.6 (5.33)
Mexican American	22.2 (0.4)	1353.8 (120.0)	2.5 (0.4)	75.5 (1.40)	1.2 (0.1)	42.4 (0.88)	0.4 (0.3)	27.1 (5.64)
Other	64.1 (0.4)	1240.0 (122.3)	3.2 (0.4)	86.3 (1.77)	2.8 (0.3)	45.2 (1.02)	2.0 (0.2)	39.2 (8.16)
Female
Non-Hispanic White	42.3 (0.4)	791.8 (122.3)	4.1 (0.4)	54.4 (1.75)	0.3 (0.2)	11.6 (0.47)	1.9 (0.6)	27.4 (5.71)
Non-Hispanic Black	58.0 (0.4)	1402.6 (123.7)	0.0 (0.5)	53.8 (0.98)	1.1 (0.2)	33.8 (0.72)	1.8 (0.3)	41.1 (8.56)
Mexican American	64.2 (0.4)	1255.5 (123.3)	2.0 (0.5)	66.9 (1.36)	0.8 (0.1)	26.2 (0.63)	0.9 (0.2)	26.8 (5.59)
Other	51.9 (0.5)	1150.0 (120.0)	1.1 (0.3)	58.1 (1.26)	1.5 (0.5)	29.2 (0.73)	2.4 (0.3)	56.3 (11.7)

Note. The cap-and-trade system involved a 20% reduction in capped added-sugar emissions over 20 years at a linear rate of decline. The SSB tax and added-sugar tax were both penny-per-ounce taxes, with the former applying to total ounces of sugar-sweetened beverages purchased and the latter applying to total ounces of added sugar in any food purchase. See Appendix for input parameter values used for each simulated scenario.

Source. Demographic categories and baseline statistics are from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey.²⁶