Table 3.
Remaining lifetime risks of first incident manifestation of cardiovascular disease by age
| Age (years) and manifestation | Lifetime risk (%)* (95% CI) | P value | Excess events per 1000 women† | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Men | Women | |||
| Age 55: | ||||
| No of people | 3293 | 5126 | — | — |
| Cardiovascular disease | 67.1 (64.7 to 69.5) | 66.4 (64.2 to 68.7) | 0.34 | −7 |
| Coronary heart disease‡ | 27.2 (24.1 to 30.3) | 16.9 (13.5 to 20.4) | <0.001 | −102 |
| Cerebrovascular disease§ | 22.8 (20.4 to 25.1) | 29.8 (27.7 to 31.9) | <0.001 | 70 |
| Heart failure | 14.9 (13.3 to 16.6) | 17.5 (15.9 to 19.2) | 0.014 | 26 |
| Other cardiovascular death¶ | 2.3 (1.6 to 2.9) | 2.1 (1.6 to 2.7) | 0.39 | −1 |
| Age 65: | ||||
| No of people | 3001 | 4832 | — | — |
| Cardiovascular disease | 63.4 (61.1 to 65.7) | 65.6 (63.7 to 67.5) | 0.077 | 22 |
| Coronary heart disease‡ | 21.6 (19.6 to 23.6) | 14.7 (13.3 to 16.2) | <0.001 | −69 |
| Cerebrovascular disease§ | 22.7 (20.7 to 24.7) | 30.3 (28.4 to 32.1) | <0.001 | 76 |
| Heart failure | 16.8 (15.0 to 18.5) | 18.2 (16.7 to 19.7) | 0.113 | 14 |
| Other cardiovascular death¶ | 2.4 (1.6 to 3.1) | 2.4 (1.8 to 3.0) | 0.49 | 0 |
| Age 75: | ||||
| No of people | 1648 | 3180 | — | — |
| Cardiovascular disease | 58.7 (55.8 to 61.6) | 63.4 (61.2 to 65.6) | 0.006 | 48 |
| Coronary heart disease‡ | 15.4 (13.2 to 17.5) | 12.5 (11.0 to 14.0) | 0.014 | −29 |
| Cerebrovascular disease§ | 21.9 (19.4 to 24.3) | 28.9 (26.8 to 31.0) | <0.001 | 70 |
| Heart failure | 18.3 (16.0 to 20.6) | 19.4 (17.6 to 21.2) | 0.24 | 11 |
| Other cardiovascular death¶ | 3.1 (2.1 to 4.2) | 2.7 (2.0 to 3.5) | 0.26 | −4 |
| Age 85: | ||||
| No of people | 438 | 1296 | — | — |
| Cardiovascular disease | 52.0 (46.6 to 57.3) | 57.1 (53.9 to 60.3) | 0.054 | 51 |
| Coronary heart disease‡ | 11.0 (7.6 to 14.3) | 11.6 (9.6 to 13.7) | 0.38 | 6 |
| Cerebrovascular disease§ | 19.3 (15.1 to 23.5) | 24.8 (22.0 to 27.6) | 0.017 | 55 |
| Heart failure | 17.3 (13.2 to 21.3) | 17.9 (15.5 to 20.4) | 0.40 | 6 |
| Other cardiovascular death¶ | 4.4 (2.2 to 6.6) | 2.8 (1.7 to 3.9) | 0.095 | −16 |
*Adjusted for competing non-cardiovascular death.
†Excess risk computed as absolute difference in remaining lifetime risk between men and women.
‡Coronary heart disease=myocardial infarction, coronary revascularisation, or death from coronary heart disease.
§Cerebrovascular disease=stroke, transient ischaemic attack, or carotid revascularisation.
¶Other cardiovascular death=all cardiovascular mortality other than fatal coronary heart disease or stroke.