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. 2014 Nov 17;349:g5992. doi: 10.1136/bmj.g5992

Table 5.

 Remaining lifetime risks of first incident manifestation of hard atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease by age

Age (years) and manifestation Lifetime risk (%)* (95% CI) P value Excess events per 1000 women†
Men Women
Age 55:
No of people 3293 5126
 Hard atherosclerotic cardiovascular event 43.2 (40.7 to 45.6) 38.1 (36.2 to 40.1) <0.001 −51
  Hard coronary heart disease‡ 23.5 (21.4 to 25.6) 14.4 (13.0 to 15.8) <0.001 −91
  Non-haemorrhagic stroke 17.8 (15.8 to 19.7) 22.5 (20.8 to 24.2) <0.001 48
  Other atherosclerotic cardiovascular death§ 1.9 (1.3 to 2.6) 1.2 (0.8 to 1.6) 0.037 −7
Age 65:
No of people 3159 5003
 Hard atherosclerotic cardiovascular event 40.3 (38.0 to 42.7) 37.8 (35.8 to 39.7) 0.050 −26
  Hard coronary heart disease‡ 20.8 (18.8 to 22.7) 13.7 (12.3 to 15.1) <0.001 −70
  Non-haemorrhagic stroke 17.7 (15.8 to 19.5) 22.8 (21.0 to 24.5) <0.001 51
  Other atherosclerotic cardiovascular death§ 1.9 (1.3 to 2.6) 1.3 (0.8 to 1.7) 0.057 −6
Age 75:
No of people 1934 3560
 Hard atherosclerotic cardiovascular event 35.5 (32.7 to 38.3) 36.2 (34.1 to 38.4) 0.34 7
  Hard coronary heart disease‡ 16.8 (14.6 to 18.9) 11.9 (10.5 to 13.4) <0.001 −48
  Non-haemorrhagic stroke 16.7 (14.5 to 18.8) 22.9 (21.0 to 24.8) <0.001 62
  Other atherosclerotic cardiovascular death§ 2.1 (1.3 to 2.9) 1.4 (0.9 to 1.9) 0.093 −6
Age 85:
No of people 594 1619
 Hard atherosclerotic cardiovascular event 31.4 (26.9 to 35.8) 31.6 (28.9 to 34.4) 0.46 3
  Hard coronary heart disease‡ 14.1 (10.8 to 17.4) 10.3 (8.5 to 12.1) 0.023 −38
  Non-haemorrhagic stroke 15.9 (12.4 to 19.4) 20.2 (17.8 to 22.5) 0.026 42
  Other atherosclerotic cardiovascular death§ 1.3 (0.3 to 2.4) 1.2 (0.5 to 1.8) 0.41 −1

*Adjusted for competing non-atherosclerotic death among men and women at different ages.

†Excess risk computed as absolute difference in remaining lifetime risk between men and women.

‡Hard coronary heart disease=myocardial infarction or death from coronary heart disease.

§Other atherosclerotic cardiovascular death=all atherosclerotic cardiovascular mortality other than fatal coronary heart disease or non-haemorrhagic stroke.