No change and improved scenario forecasts of cumulative incidence for Guinea, Liberia and Sierra Leone.

Observations (x), mean ensemble trajectory during training with observations (solid dark grey line), mean ensemble trajectory of prior weekly forecasts (colored lines), and the current forecast begun September 28, 2014 (boxes and whiskers) are shown. The colored ‘x’ shown the corresponding final observation assimilated prior to generating a given weekly ensemble forecast. The box and whiskers show the median (thick grey horizontal line), 25th and 75th percentiles (box boundaries), and 95% credible interval (whiskers).