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. 2014 Oct 13;111(45):16202–16207. doi: 10.1073/pnas.1323007111

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Fig. 4. — R₀, early transmission, and reduction in incidence. (A) The distribution of R₀ at the start of the epidemic (green) and during the intervention period (blue), after behavior change. (B) The relationship between R₀ at the start of the epidemic and the percentage of early transmission in 2010, at the start of the intervention. (C) The relationship between R₀ during the intervention period and the reduction in HIV incidence rate after 30 y. Red lines indicate the fitted linear relationship between 1/R₀ and early transmission (B) or reduction in incidence rate (C).