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. 2014 Oct 13;111(45):16202–16207. doi: 10.1073/pnas.1323007111

Table 1.

Estimates of early transmission, R0, and intervention impact for fixed values for increased infectiousness during early infection

R0
Relative infectiousness during early infection Transmission during early infection when ART is introduced (2010), % At epidemic start During intervention period (after behavior change) Reduction in HIV incidence rate after 31 y from an ART intervention (CD4 ≤350), %
No increase 1.9 (1.3–2.6) 8.2 (6.7–10.5) 4.1 (2.8–6.1) 21.4 (16.9–26.9)
9.2 times 11.4 (8.4–14.5) 5.8 (4.7–7.3) 3.6 (2.5–5.2) 21.8 (16.5–29.0)
26 times 18.8 (14.9–23.3) 4.6 (3.8–5.7) 3.5 (2.4–4.9) 21.2 (14.6–28.9)

Values in parentheses indicate 95% credible intervals.