Table 1.
Estimates of early transmission, R0, and intervention impact for fixed values for increased infectiousness during early infection
| R0 | ||||
| Relative infectiousness during early infection | Transmission during early infection when ART is introduced (2010), % | At epidemic start | During intervention period (after behavior change) | Reduction in HIV incidence rate after 31 y from an ART intervention (CD4 ≤350), % |
| No increase | 1.9 (1.3–2.6) | 8.2 (6.7–10.5) | 4.1 (2.8–6.1) | 21.4 (16.9–26.9) |
| 9.2 times | 11.4 (8.4–14.5) | 5.8 (4.7–7.3) | 3.6 (2.5–5.2) | 21.8 (16.5–29.0) |
| 26 times | 18.8 (14.9–23.3) | 4.6 (3.8–5.7) | 3.5 (2.4–4.9) | 21.2 (14.6–28.9) |
Values in parentheses indicate 95% credible intervals.