Table A2.

Real Per Capita Spending Growth by Payer vs. GDP Growth Rate, 1970–2012 (Dependent variable: growth in real per capita costs paid by)

	Total	Personal	Medicare	Medicaid	Private Insurance	Out-of- pocket spending
Panel A: no lags
Real, per capita GDP growth (Current period)	0.165 (0.105)	0.0625 (0.0939)	−0.217 (0.256)	−0.370 (0.433)	0.512** (0.233)	0.508*** (0.168)
R2 (Model 1)	0.044	0.007	0.017	0.022	0.089	0.164
Panel B: with 3 lags
Sum of current and lagged real per capita GDP growth	0.553***	0.544***	−0.463	0.313	0.980*	0.962**
Wald F statistic	6.77	8.81	.998	.323	3.7	7.33
P-value	0.013	0.005	0.324	0.573	0.062	0.010
R2	0.189	0.170	0.025	0.105	0.190	0.229
Panel C: with 5 lags
Sum of current and lagged real per capita GDP growth	1.398***	1.187***	−0.820	2.179**	3.076***	1.589***
Wald F statistic	54.4	41.4	1.06	6.35	58.4	15
P-value	0.000	0.000	0.311	0.016	0.000	0.000
R2	0.561	0.437	0.040	0.244	0.570	0.338
First year	1970	1970	1970	1970	1970	1970
Last year	2012	2012	2011	2011	2011	2011
N	43	43	42	42	42	42

Source: Total national health expenditures are from the CMS National Health Expenditures Accounts from 1970–2011, with 2012 estimates for total and personal spending provided by the Altarum Institute. The gross domestic product and GDP deflator are published by the Bureau of Economic Analysis.

^*p < .10,

^**p < .05,

^***p < .01

Note: Standard errors in parentheses. Results are from OLS regressions with robust standard errors. F statistics are against the null that the current and all lagged coefficients are all equal to zero.