Table 1. Summary of simulated outbreaks with different parameters.
Outbreak | R0 | 1/ω | 1/γ | Total cases | Peak cases | Time to peak (d) | Duration (d) |
1 | 1.5 | 3.0 | 3.0 | 34 | NA | NA | 46 |
2 | 1.5 | 3.0 | 5.0 | 41 | NA | NA | 57 |
3 | 1.5 | 3.0 | 7.0 | 46 | NA | NA | 74 |
4 | 1.5 | 2.0 | 3.0 | 43 | 2 | 17 | 38 |
5 | 1.5 | 2.0 | 5.0 | 49 | 2 | 22 | 48 |
6 | 1.5 | 2.0 | 7.0 | 53 | 2 | 38 | 59 |
7 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 7.0 | 60 | 2 | 20 | 50 |
8 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 3.0 | 53 | 3 | 19 | 30 |
9 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 5.0 | 58 | 3 | 13 | 41 |
10 | 2.0 | 3.0 | 3.0 | 78 | 4 | 23 | 35 |
11 | 2.0 | 3.0 | 5.0 | 94 | 4 | 27 | 44 |
12 | 2.0 | 3.0 | 7.0 | 104 | 4 | 33 | 52 |
13 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 7.0 | 121 | 5 | 29 | 44 |
14 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 3.0 | 98 | 6 | 17 | 29 |
15 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 7.0 | 137 | 6 | 21 | 37 |
16 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 5.0 | 131 | 8 | 21 | 29 |
17 | 2.5 | 3.0 | 7.0 | 163 | 8 | 30 | 41 |
18 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 5.0 | 112 | 9 | 27 | 35 |
19 | 2.5 | 3.0 | 3.0 | 117 | 9 | 20 | 26 |
20 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 3.0 | 121 | 9 | 20 | 22 |
21 | 2.5 | 2.0 | 7.0 | 183 | 10 | 25 | 40 |
22 | 2.5 | 3.0 | 5.0 | 140 | 11 | 26 | 36 |
23 | 2.5 | 2.0 | 5.0 | 167 | 11 | 22 | 29 |
24 | 2.5 | 2.0 | 3.0 | 146 | 12 | 17 | 23 |
25 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 7.0 | 207 | 13 | 19 | 29 |
26 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 5.0 | 196 | 15 | 16 | 24 |
27 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 3.0 | 177 | 20 | 13 | 17 |
NA: the epidemics did not manifest an obvious peak due to the low transmissibility and long incubation duration of virus.
R0: the basic reproductive number.
1/ω: the incubation period.
1/γ: the infectious period.