Table 1.

Examples of population-environment-development dynamics around urbanisation, war, and migration at two different time scales

	Sudden and fast (ie, weeks and months)	Slow and long-term (ie, years and decades)
Population	War-driven exodus leading to loss of employment and loss of development gains, and an increase in environmental pressure in places of refuge, usually cities (eg, Iraqi refugees fleeing within Iraq and to other Arab countries)	Changes to the size and age structure of Arab families, especially in cities, leading to different economic survival strategies and patterns of environmental stress
Environment	Environmental event leading to economic ruin, loss of development gains, and displacement of people, usually towards cities (eg, Syria′s 2006–12 drought and its effect on the agricultural sector, food prices, and rural-urban migration)	Long-term depletion and increased salinity of groundwater reserves leading to a decline in the agricultural sector and faster urbanisation; projected sea-level rise in Qatar, United Arab Emirates, and Egypt and its effects on coastal populations and livelihoods
Development	War-triggered loss of employment leading to displacement and environmental pressure in places of destination (eg, Saudi Arabia expelling Yemeni workers in 1990)53	Withdrawal of agricultural subsidies and development of alternative employment leading to faster urbanisation and more environmental pressure in cities