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. 2014 Sep 25;180(10):1036–1046. doi: 10.1093/aje/kwu213

Table 2.

Key Concepts Illustrated in Numerical Examples Corresponding to 3 Influenza Pandemic Scenarios with Different Levels of Severity

Numerical Example Methodological Concept(s)
Precision of surveillance strategies' pyramidal
estimators
The optimal allocation of resources for any pyramidal estimator can be calculated with equation 2.
The standard error of pyramidal sCFR estimators under optimal resource allocation can be calculated with equation 4.
The precision of sCFR estimators increases when progression probabilities inferior to 0.11a are split in two.
The precision of sCFR estimators increases when multiplied progression probabilities are close to one anothera.
Necessary budget The minimal necessary budget for any pyramidal estimator to reach a desired precision can be calculated with equation 5.
The minimal necessary budget for the single-level estimator increases dramatically as the sCFR decreases.
Using pyramidal estimators allows a great precision gain when the sCFR is small.
Robustness to initial uncertainty See “Optimization in the presence of uncertainty” in the Methods section of the text.

Abbreviation: sCFR, symptomatic case fatality ratio.

a When recruitment costs at the concerned levels are equal.