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. 2014 Nov 27;4:7218. doi: 10.1038/srep07218

Figure 2. Model calibration and validation.

Figure 2

(A) Distribution (mean, 50%CI and 95%CI as resulting from exact binomial tests) of the post-pandemic influenza seroprevalence by age group observed in the serological samples (grey; a sample is considered seropositive when HI titer is ≥ 40) and posterior distribution (mean, 50%CI and 95%CI) estimated with transmission models HR (blue), HSR (green) and HSWR (red). (B) Posterior distribution (mean, 50%CI and 95%CI) of the epidemic doubling time estimated with transmission models HR (blue), HSR (green) and HSWR (red). The grey bar refers to range estimated an independent study (Merler et al.31); grey points refer to the average values estimated in Poletti et al.33 and in Ajelli et al.34. (C) Posterior distribution (mean, 50%CI and 95%CI) of the effective reproduction number estimated with transmission models HR (blue), HSR (green) and HSWR (red). Grey bars refer to range estimated in independent studies (Merler et al.31 and Dorigatti et al.37); grey points refer to the average values estimated in Poletti et al.33 and in Ajelli et al.34. (D) Posterior distribution (mean, 50%CI and 95%CI) of the relative susceptibility to infection of adults (19+ year-old) with respect to younger individuals estimated with transmission models HR (blue), HSR (green) and HSWR (red).