Table 4.
Priors and Weighted Posterior Estimates for Parameters of the Three Models of Colonization for Drosophila suzukii.
| Parameter | Population (i) | Prior | Mode | Mean | Median | Q5% | Q95% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Log10(Ni) | Asia |
U[4, 8]a |
6.27 | 6.26 | 6.26 | 5.94 | 6.56 |
| Japan (JP) | U[2, 6]a | 5.64 | 5.31 | 5.40 | 3.46 | 6.88 | |
| Hawaii (HI) | 5.18 | 4.32 | 4.37 | 2.78 | 5.77 | ||
| Western United States (WUS) | 5.37 | 4.66 | 4.77 | 3.12 | 5.84 | ||
| Eastern United States | 3.66 | 4.25 | 4.24 | 2.76 | 5.74 | ||
| Spain | 3.03 | 4.04 | 3.98 | 2.68 | 5.61 | ||
| Log10(fi) | Hawaii | U[0.6, 3]a | 2.30 | 2.10 | 2.14 | 1.23 | 2.84 |
| Western United States | 2.52 | 2.14 | 2.25 | 1.00 | 2.89 | ||
| Eastern United States (EUS) | 1.81 | 1.79 | 1.79 | 0.95 | 2.63 | ||
| Spain (SP) | 0.87 | 1.03 | 0.98 | 0.65 | 1.56 | ||
| τi | Hawaii (HI) |
U[100, 750]a |
421 | 431 | 434 | 147 | 704 |
| Western United States (WUS) | U[10, 100]b τHI > τWUS > τSP > τEUS | 88 | 75 | 78 | 42 | 97 | |
| Eastern United States (EUS) | 21 | 32 | 29 | 12 | 62 | ||
| Spain (SP) | 60 | 58 | 58 | 24 | 90 | ||
| Log10(Nm) | — | U[−2, 2]a | −0.27 | −0.21 | −0.23 | −1.05 | 0.69 |
| μ × 109 | — | N(3.46, 0.28)c | 3.49 | 3.49 | 3.49 | 2.46 | 4.52 |
Note.—The models share the same parameters (population sizes N, number of founder f, time of colonization τ, migration rate Nm, and mutation rate μ) and the posterior estimates are weighted by the posterior probability of each model.
aU[x, y]: uniform distribution between x and y.
bU[10, 100] on each τi initially, but only combinations in line with the stated rules were accepted.
cN(x, y): normal distribution with mean x and standard deviation y.