Table 1.
Mortality rates by season, rate differences (both per 100,000 population), and rate ratios comparing winter and summer, for children with RTIs only and any respiratory condition, with winter excess deaths shown as estimated number and percentage of all non-injury winter deaths and all RTI-related deaths, by age group and indicator used, England, 2001-2010
| Indicator used | Rate winter(95% CI) | Rate summer(95% CI) | Rate ratio winter/summer(95% CI) | Rate difference winter-summer(95% CI) † | Total number of excess RTI-related deaths in winter (range)* | Average number of excess RTI-related deaths each winter (range)* | Winter excess as % of total non-injury deaths in winter** | Winter excess as % of total RTI-related deaths*** |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28-364 days | ||||||||
| RTIs only | 28.7 (27.1, 30.5) | 17.2 (15.5, 19.0) | 1.68 (1.49, 1.88) | 11.59 (9.19, 13.98) | 454 (360, 548) | 45 (36, 55) | 7.3% | 30.0% |
| Any respiratory condition | 74.4 (71.7, 77.1) | 58.1 (54.9, 61.3) | 1.28 (1.20, 1.37) | 16.23 (12.08, 20.38) | 636 (474, 799) | 64 (47, 80) | 10.2% | 15.1% |
| 1-4 years | ||||||||
| RTIs only | 7.3 (6.8, 7.7) | 3.5 (3.1, 3.9) | 2.08 (1.84, 2.37) | 3.78 (3.20, 4.36) | 576 (487, 664) | 58 (49, 66) | 18.8% | 40.8% |
| Any respiratory condition | 10.5 (10.0, 11.0) | 6.1 (5.6, 6.7) | 1.71 (1.55, 1.89) | 4.37 (3.63, 5.10) | 665 (553, 776) | 66 (55, 78) | 21.8% | 31.2% |
| 5-18 years | ||||||||
| RTIs only | 2.8 (2.6, 2.9) | 1.7 (1.6, 1.9) | 1.60 (1.45, 1.76) | 1.04 (0.84, 1.24) | 583 (471, 695) | 58 (47, 69) | 9.6% | 27.6% |
| Any respiratory condition | 4.8 (4.6, 4.9) | 3.6 (3.4, 3.8) | 1.32 (1.23, 1.41) | 1.14 (0.87, 1.42) | 640 (485, 794) | 64 (49, 79) | 10.6% | 16.7% |
| All ages | ||||||||
| RTIs only | 5.0 (4.9, 5.2) | 2.9 (2.7, 3.1) | 1.74 (1.63, 1.86) | 2.1 (1.9, 2.4) | 1613 (1442, 1784) | 161 (144, 178) | 10.5% | 32.0% |
| Any respiratory condition | 9.6 (9.3, 9.8) | 7.0 (6.7, 7.2) | 1.37 (1.31, 1.43) | 2.6 (2.3, 2.9) | 1941 (1691, 2191) | 194 (169, 219) | 12.6% | 19.1% |
†All differences in RTI-related mortality rates between winter and summer are statistically significant, Likelihood ratio test p < 0.001 for all ages.
*Range is estimated using the lower and upper end of the 95% confidence interval for the rate difference.
**Using point estimate for excess RTI-related deaths. Total non-injury deaths in winter by age group: 28–264 days = 6244, 1–4 years = 3056, 5–18 years = 6046.
***Using point estimate for excess RTI-related or any respiratory condition related deaths.
Total deaths by age group for RTIs only: 28–264 days = 1512, 1–4 years = 1411, 5–18 years = 2116.
Total deaths by age group for any respiratory condition: 28–264 days = 4219, 1–4 years = 2129, 5–18 years = 3821.