Table 1. Mortality rates, rate ratios, and rate differences in NLST participants by trial arm and by decile of PLCOm2012 risk.
Category | Risk Percentile | |||||||||
0–10 | >10 to 20 | >20 to 30 | >30 to 40 | >40 to 50 | >50 to 60 | >60 to 70 | >70 to 80 | >80 to 90 | >90 to 100 | |
CXR arm | ||||||||||
Number of individuals in decile group | 1 | 6 | 87 | 471 | 1,566 | 2,958 | 4,320 | 5,378 | 5,428 | 5,748 |
Number of deaths | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 19 | 35 | 81 | 135 | 254 |
Person-years of follow-up | 6.67 | 38.21 | 555.29 | 3,062.57 | 10,274.54 | 19,309.86 | 28,065.96 | 34,721.42 | 34,543.86 | 35,454.52 |
Lung cancer mortality per 10,000 person-years | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3.27 | 6.81 | 9.84 | 12.47 | 23.33 | 39.08 | 71.64 |
CT arm | ||||||||||
Number of individuals in decile group | 0 | 2 | 67 | 526 | 1,528 | 2,982 | 4,261 | 5,441 | 5,569 | 5,626 |
Number of deaths | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 12 | 35 | 61 | 106 | 230 |
Person-years of follow-up | 0 | 13.71 | 427.03 | 3,484.44 | 10,005.65 | 19,479.05 | 27,763.18 | 35,323.81 | 35,690.19 | 35,004.87 |
Lung cancer mortality per 10,000 person-years | NA | 0 | 0 | 5.74 | 5.00 | 6.16 | 12.61 | 17.27 | 29.70 | 65.71 |
Rate ratio (CT mortality/CXR mortality) | NA | NA | NA | 1.76 | 0.73 | 0.62 | 1.01 | 0.74 | 0.76 | 0.92 |
Rate ratio 95% CI | NA | NA | NA | 0.09 to 103.71 | 0.18 to 2.68 | 0.28 to 1.36 | 0.61 to 1.66 | 0.52 to 1.04 | 0.58 to 0.99 | 0.76 to 1.10 |
Rate difference per 10,000 person-years * (CT mortality − CXR mortality) | NA | 0 | 0 | 2.48 | −1.82 | −3.68 | 0.14 | −6.06 | −9.38 | −5.94 |
Rate difference 95% CI | NA | 0–0 | 0–0 | −7.74 to 12.68 | −8.50 to 4.87 | −9.31 to 1.95 | −5.74 to 6.01 | −12.74 to 0.62 | −18.07 to −0.70 | −18.17 to 6.30 |
PLCOm2012 model risk decile boundaries were established in PLCO control smokers.
*Rate difference is incidence rate in CT arm per 10,000 minus incidence rate in CXR arm per 10,000. A negative absolute rate indicates a lower rate of lung cancer death in the CT arm compared to the CXR arm. PLCOm2012 refers to the lung cancer risk prediction model described in [11].
NA, not applicable (because of zero occurring in denominator).