Table 3.
Results of random effects logistic regression models predicting Mexican men's international migration
| Model 1 | Model 2 | Model 3 | Model 4 | Model 5 | Model 6 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Age (baseline 15 to 25 years) | ||||||
| 26 to 35 years | −0.027 (0.035) | −0.027 (0.035) | −0.027 (0.035) | −0.027 (0.035) | −0.027 (0.035) | −0.027 (0.035) |
| 36 to 45 years | −0.359** (0.040) | −0.359** (0.040) | −0.359** (0.040) | −0.360** (0.040) | −0.359** (0.040) | −0.359** (0.040) |
| 46 to 55 years | −0.939** (0.052) | −0.939** (0.052) | −0.939** (0.052) | −0.939** (0.052) | −0.939** (0.052) | −0.939** (0.052) |
| Education (baseline less than primary) | ||||||
| Complete primary | 0.205** (0.039) | 0.205** (0.039) | 0.205** (0.039) | 0.205** (0.039) | 0.205** (0.039) | 0.205** (0.039) |
| Complete middle school | 0.187** (0.039) | 0.187** (0.039) | 0.187** (0.039) | 0.187** (0.039) | 0.187** (0.039) | 0.187** (0.039) |
| Complete high school or technical degree | 0.014 (0.047) | 0.014 (0.047) | 0.014 (0.047) | 0.014 (0.047) | 0.014 (0.047) | 0.014 (0.047) |
| Complete college or more | −0.207** (0.063) | −0.207** (0.063) | −0.207** (0.063) | −0.208** (0.063) | −0.207** (0.063) | −0.207** (0.063) |
| Marital Status (baseline single) | ||||||
| Married | 0.228** (0.036) | 0.228** (0.036) | 0.228** (0.036) | 0.228** (0.036) | 0.228** (0.036) | 0.228** (0.036) |
| Cohabiting | 0.135** (0.043) | 0.135** (0.043) | 0.135** (0.043) | 0.135** (0.043) | 0.135** (0.043) | 0.135** (0.043) |
| Separated, divorced, or widowed | −0.077 (0.094) | −0.077 (0.094) | −0.077 (0.094) | −0.077 (0.094) | −0.077 (0.094) | −0.077 (0.094) |
| Born out of State | 0.168** (0.034) | 0.169** (0.034) | 0.169** (0.034) | 0.169** (0.034) | 0.169** (0.034) | 0.169** (0.034) |
| Employment (baseline not econ. active) | ||||||
| Employed informal sector | 0.309** (0.036) | 0.309** (0.036) | 0.309** (0.036) | 0.309** (0.036) | 0.309** (0.036) | 0.309** (0.036) |
| Employed formal sector | −0.354** (0.046) | −0.355** (0.046) | −0.355** (0.046) | −0.355** (0.046) | −0.355** (0.046) | −0.354** (0.046) |
| Unemployed | 0.759** (0.055) | 0.758** (0.055) | 0.758** (0.055) | 0.758** (0.055) | 0.758** (0.055) | 0.758** (0.055) |
| Household Variables | ||||||
| Number of household members | 0.091** (0.007) | 0.091** (0.007) | 0.091** (0.007) | 0.091** (0.007) | 0.091** (0.007) | 0.091** (0.007) |
| Number of children in household | −0.067** (0.013) | −0.067** (0.013) | −0.067** (0.013) | −0.067** (0.013) | −0.067** (0.013) | −0.067** (0.013) |
| Household income | −0.019** (0.002) | −0.019** (0.002) | −0.019** (0.002) | −0.019** (0.002) | −0.019** (0.002) | −0.019** (0.002) |
| Contextual Variables | ||||||
| Mean wages | −0.043** (0.003) | −0.043** (0.003) | −0.044** (0.003) | −0.043** (0.003) | −0.043** (0.003) | −0.044** (0.003) |
| Unemployment rate | 0.060** (0.010) | 0.061** (0.010) | 0.063** (0.010) | 0.062** (0.010) | 0.062** (0.010) | 0.062** (0.010) |
| Ave. age of men | −0.124** (0.033) | −0.127** (0.033) | −0.130** (0.033) | −0.130** (0.033) | −0.129** (0.033) | −0.130** (0.033) |
| Int. migrant networks | 0.039** (0.002) | 0.039** (0.002) | 0.039** (0.002) | 0.039** (0.002) | 0.039** (0.002) | 0.039** (0.002) |
| Urbanization (baseline <2,500) | ||||||
| Population 2,500 to 14,999 | −0.259** (0.036) | −0.260** (0.036) | −0.260** (0.036) | −0.259** (0.036) | −0.259** (0.036) | −0.259** (0.036) |
| Population 15,000 to 99,999 | −0.468** (0.044) | −0.467** (0.044) | −0.467** (0.044) | −0.467** (0.044) | −0.467** (0.044) | −0.467** (0.044) |
| Population ≥ 100,000 | −0.755** (0.033) | −0.754** (0.033) | −0.754** (0.033) | −0.754** (0.033) | −0.754** (0.033) | −0.753** (0.033) |
| Region | ||||||
| Historic region | 0.519** (0.031) | 0.518** (0.031) | 0.517** (0.031) | 0.517** (0.031) | 0.518** (0.031) | 0.518** (0.031) |
| Border region | 0.347** (0.044) | 0.349** (0.044) | 0.351** (0.044) | 0.351** (0.044) | 0.351** (0.044) | 0.352** (0.044) |
| Economic Conditions | ||||||
| GDP growth rate in United States | 0.059 (0.043) | 0.100* (0.049) | 0.079* (0.040) | −0.041 (0.053) | −0.020 (0.050) | 0.001 (0.045) |
| Mexican-born unemployment rate (annual) | −0.025 (0.016) | |||||
| Mexican-American unemployment rate | −0.039** (0.015) | |||||
| Employment gains in top 5 sectors | 0.040** (0.014) | |||||
| Employment gains in top 3 sectors | 0.079** (0.030) | |||||
| Employment gains in top sector (construction) | 0.192** (0.069) | |||||
| Border Enforcement | ||||||
| Staffing in Southwest sector | −0.125** (0.007) | −0.103** (0.016) | −0.093** (0.014) | −0.087** (0.015) | −0.086** (0.016) | −0.076** (0.019) |
| Constant | 1.819 (1.018) | 1.811 (1.018) | 1.547 (1.024) | 1.466 (1.026) | 1.447 (1.028) | 1.315 (1.035) |
| N | 622,869 | 622,869 | 622,869 | 622,869 | 622,869 | 622,869 |
*
p < .05;
**
p < .01 (two-tailed tests)