Table 4.
Overall performance of prediction models
| Outcome | Predictive Model | AUC (95% CI) | Sensitivity | Specificity |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| All-cause mortality | Mortality base modela | 0.71 (0.66 to 0.76) | 48.5 | 80.8 |
| Multibiomarker panelb | 0.74 (0.68 to 0.80) | 83.3 | 56.8 | |
| Self-rated health modelc | 0.80 (0.76 to 0.85) | 60.6 | 81.7 | |
| Multibiomarker panel plus self-rated health | 0.78 (0.72 to 0.84) | 76.9 | 67.3 | |
| Kidney disease progression | Kidney disease progression base modeld | 0.88 (0.83 to 0.92) | 57.7 | 93.9 |
| Multibiomarker panel | 0.89 (0.85 to 0.94) | 61.3 | 90.3 | |
| Self-rated health model | 0.93 (0.88 to 0.97) | 60.0 | 94.7 | |
| Multibiomarker panel plus self-rated health | 0.90 (0.83 to 0.96) | 76.2 | 94.0 | |
| Combined end point | Combined base modele | 0.73 (0.69 to 0.78) | 74.1 | 58.6 |
| Multibiomarker panel | 0.76 (0.70 to 0.82) | 87.2 | 50.0 | |
| Self-rated health model | 0.81 (0.76 to 0.84) | 71.3 | 79.3 | |
| Multibiomarker panel plus self-rated health | 0.77 (0.72 to 0.81) | 67.3 | 74.8 |
Sensitivity and specificity estimated at the cut-point that predicted the probability of the outcome at ≥0.5. Pearson’s correlation coefficients between the self-rated health assessment and each of the biomarkers from the multibiomarker panel are as follows (higher value refers to worse self-rated health): r=0.14 for cystatin C, r=0.08 for logCRP, r=−0.16 for 25-hydroxyvitamin D, r=0.10 for parathyroid hormone, r=0.11 for fibroblast growth factor-23 (log-transformed), r=−0.12 for hemoglobin, r=0.09 for uric acid, and r=0.03 for anion gap. AUC, area under the curve; CRP, C-reactive protein.
The mortality base model was composed of age, race, sex, eGFR, albuminuria, and the Framingham Risk Score (n=443).
The multibiomarker panel included cystatin C, CRP (log-transformed), 25-hydroxyvitamin D, parathyroid hormone, fibroblast growth factor-23 (log-transformed), hemoglobin, uric acid, and anion gap (n=210).
The self-rated health model combined age, sex, race, eGFR, albuminuria, and the participant’s response to the self-rated health question (n=443). The multibiomarker panel plus self-rated health model comprised 210 participants.
The kidney disease progression base model included age, sex, eGFR, albuminuria, serum calcium, serum phosphate serum bicarbonate, and serum albumin (25) (n=443).
The kidney disease progression plus mortality base model (combined base model) includes all characteristics from the mortality base model and the kidney disease progression base model.