Table 3.

Change Score Analysis of Seattle Total Crime, 1990–2000

	Model 1		Model 2		Model 3			Model 4			Model 5
Variable	Coef. (SE)		Coef. (SE)		Coef. (SE)		Stzd(β)	Coef. (SE)		Stzd(β)	Coef. (SE)		Stzd(β)
Constant	−109.63	***	−152.12	***	−43.89			204.23	*		106.16	***
	(17.89)		(28.17)		(59.91)			(83.41)			(30.79)
Gentrifying Tracts	−147.26	***	−104.77	*	−112.69	*	−.23	−117.54	**	−.24	−26.88		−.06
	(42.76)		(47.62)		(45.26)			(41.91)			(23.27)
Appreciating Tracts			70.11		38.51		.10	46.25		.13	−56.87	***	−.15
			(36.19)		(36.69)			(31.92)			(16.34)
Δ Total Population					−8.74	**	−.28	−9.32	**	−.29	.54		−.02
(100s)					(3.13)			(2.97)			(2.80)
Δ Percent Adults					.17		.00	−.63		−.02	−3.02		−.07
with College Degree					(4.11)			(3.94)			(2.00)
Δ Mean Household					−.92		−.06	−1.63		−.10	−1.00		−.06
Income ($1k)					(1.65)			(1.43)			(1.19)
Δ Mean Mortgage Investment ($100k)					−1.76		−.08	−1.73		−.08	.33		.02
					(2.09)			(2.13)			(0.88)
Δ Percent Moved Last					6.72	*	.21	5.96	*	.18	6.41	***	.20
Five Years					(2.93)			(2.90)			(1.74)
Δ Percent Foreign					−2.79		−.07	−2.85		−.07	1.32		.03
Born Population					(3.52)			(3.46)			(1.70)
Δ Percent Black					11.20	***	.32	10.83	***	.31	9.66	***	.28
Population					(2.93)			(2.86)			(1.16)
Δ Percent Homes					−6.65	**	−.25	−5.87	**	−.22	−1.52		−.06
Built Last Five Years					(2.31)			(2.23)			(1.33)
1990 Total Crime											−.34	***	−.90
											(0.02)
Spatial Error Term								.78	***		−.22	***
								(0.21)			(0.00)
R-Square	.09		.12		.29			.39			.79

NOTE: Standard errors appear in parantheses

^*p < 0.05;

^**p < 0.01;

^***p < 0.01