Figure 1.

Visual predictive checks (VPCs) of final models fitted to (a) the PK dataset including patients in period two of the crossover trials (total n = 266) and (b) excluding patients in period two of the crossover trials (total n = 223). In the upper panel, the solid black circles are the observed log_e DHA plasma concentration (ng/ml) above the respective limit of quantification for each study (see Supplementary Table S4), and the following are plotted for bins across the independent variable time: 50th (solid black line), 2.5th, and 97.5th (dashed black lines) percentiles of the observed concentrations; and simulation-based 95% confidence intervals for the predicted 50th (pink region), 2.5th, and 97.5th (blue regions) percentiles. In the lower panel, the solid black line is the observed fraction of DHA concentrations (at each time point of sample collection) below quantification limit (BQL), and the blue region is the simulation-based 95% confidence interval for the predicted fraction of BQL DHA samples. DHA, dihydroartemisinin; PK, pharmacokinetic.