Table 1.

Key model parameters [5]

Description	Estimate or rangea	Reference
Disease stages duration		[15,16]
Acute stage	10–16 weeks
Chronic stage >500 cells/µl	0.87–1 year
Chronic stage 350–500 cells/µl	2.9–3.1 years
Chronic stage 200–350 cells/µl	3.6–3.9 years
AIDS stageb	6–12 months
Final AIDS stageb	7–13 months
Infectivity		[17,18]
Acute stage	27–43 times that of chronic stage
Chronic stage (all)	10% per year
AIDS stageb	3–5 times higher than chronic stage
Final AIDS stageb	0%
Proportion of people in sexual risk		Model calibration
Highest	1.5–2.5%
Second	10–20%
Third	20–30%
Lowest	47.5–68.5%
Number of partners per year in each sexual risk group		Model calibration
Highest	9–14
Second	1.7–3
Third	0.12–0.22
Lowest	0.04–0.06
Mortality rates per year		[19]
Population	0.02
Chronic HIV stage	0.098
AIDS stage	0.63
On treatment during chronic stage, first year	0.02–0.098
On treatment during chronic stage, 12+ months	0.02–0.05
On treatment during AIDS stage, first year	0.03–0.3
On treatment during AIDS stage, 12+ months	0.03–0.06
HIV test rate
Baseline	10–30%	Model calibration
Rate of being tested in the acute stage of HIV	Half of the test rate	Assumptionc
Rate of being tested in the chronic stage of HIV	Test rate	Model calibration
Rate of being tested in the AIDS stage	Test rate+10%
Linkage to care from test to treat	75–100%	Model calibration
Reduction in transmissibility of those	90–100%	[2,20,21]
Percentage of people that go to second-line after continued virological failure, yearly after 12 months on treatment:
On zidovudine-based regimen	33–50%	PASER-monitoring, Kampala
On tenofovir-based regimen	33–66%
Percentage of those who go onto second-line not due to resistance in the first 12 months	1.5–3%	[22]

^aAll ranges are uniformly distributed.

^bTwo AIDS stages were included because during the final months before death, patients have limited sexual activity.

^cDue to window phase of antibody-based test.