Table 4.
Parameter estimates of bivariate and Bayesian spatio-temporal logistic models for T. trichiura infection risk in Brazil
| T. trichiurainfection | Bivariate logistic † | Spatio-temporal model |
|---|---|---|
| OR (95% CI) | OR (95% BCI) | |
| Survey period | ||
| 1995-1999 | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| 2000-2004 | 1.83 (1.50; 2.23)* | 3.47 (2.74; 4.40)* |
| 2005-2009 | 1.05 (0.82; 1.36) | 1.66 (1.30; 2.10)* |
| From 2010 onwards | 0.87 (0.64; 1.17) | 0.93 (0.71; 1.21) |
| Yearly temperature range (°C) | ||
| <13 | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| 13-18 | 0.19 (0.15; 0.25)* | 0.34 (0.25; 0.47)* |
| ≥18 | 0.12 (0.09; 0.17)* | 0.34 (0.22; 0.53)* |
| Mean temperature of coldest quarter (°C) | ||
| <19 | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| 19-22 | 3.03 (2.25; 4.07)* | 0.83 (0.61; 1.13) |
| ≥22 | 7.97 (6.09; 10.42)* | 1.42 (0.92; 2.18) |
| Isothermality | 1.28 (1.15; 1.42)* | 1.27 (1.09; 1.48)* |
| Precipitation seasonality | 0.70 (0.64; 0.76)* | 0.82 (0.68; 0.98)* |
| Precipitation in wettest quarter (mm) | ||
| <560 | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| 560-680 | 1.03 (0.74; 1.45) | 1.65 (1.22; 2.24)* |
| ≥680 | 1.72 (1.24; 2.40)* | 2.11 (1.48; 3.00)* |
| Precipitation in warmest quarter (mm) | ||
| <250 | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| 250-440 | 0.62 (0.47; 0.83)* | 1.50 (1.14; 1.99)* |
| ≥440 | 0.18 (0.13; 0.24)* | 2.45 (1.46; 4.11)* |
| Precipitation in driest month (mm) | ||
| <14 | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| 14-16 | 1.07 (0.70; 1.64) | 1.48 (1.10; 1.97)* |
| ≥16 | 3.21 (2.16; 4.79)* | 2.00 (1.32; 3.05)* |
| Precipitation in coldest quarter (mm) | ||
| <80 | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| 80-300 | 2.04 (1.38; 3.02)* | 1.13 (0.82; 1.55) |
| ≥300 | 7.67 (5.48; 10.75)* | 1.80 (1.11; 2.92)* |
| Soil moisture (%) | ||
| <50 | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| 50-80 | 1.56 (1.15; 2.13)* | 0.82 (0.61; 1.09) |
| ≥80 | 0.91 (0.54; 1.52) | 0.57 (0.38; 0.86)* |
| Soil pH | ||
| <5.35 | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| 5.35-5.65 | 0.54 (0.38; 0.77)* | 1.52 (1.20; 1.92)* |
| ≥5.65 | 0.60 (0.45; 0.80)* | 0.87 (0.67; 1.12) |
| Human development index (HDI) | 0.74 (0.65; 0.84)* | 1.45 (1.17; 1.79)* |
| Human influence index (HII) | ||
| <20 | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| 20-26 | 1.39 (1.01; 1.91)* | 1.49 (1.20; 1.86)* |
| ≥26 | 2.14 (1.57; 2.91)* | 1.86 (1.46; 2.37)* |
| Rural households (%) | ||
| <25 | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| 25-50 | 1.01 (0.74; 1.39) | 0.86 (0.68; 1.09) |
| ≥50 | 0.61 (0.44; 0.74)* | 0.66 (0.51; 0.85)* |
| Poor households | 1.54 (1.27; 1.87)* | 2.06 (1.58; 2.68)* |
| Median (95% BCI) | ||
| Temporal autocorrelation | -0.05 (-0.10; 0.00) | |
| Spatial variance | 9.68 (9.27; 10.03) | |
| Spatial range (km) | 32.2 (29.9; 33.9) |
†With standard error clustered at location level.
*Significant based on 95% CI or BCI.
OR: odds ratio; 95% CI: lower and upper bound of a 95% confidence interval; 95% BCI: lower and upper bound of a 95% Bayesian credible interval.