Figure 1.

Conceptual diagram of the development delay (highlighted) attributable to climate change in 2030. As the burden of disease falls in a given setting, the development delay associated with climate change at 2030 is the time beyond 2030 (i.e., X1 - 2030) required in the presence of climate change to achieve the burden of disease projected for 2030 without the impact of climate change (Y1). More generally, the development delay for a given year is calculated as the time that will pass before the burden of disease under climate change conditions will equal the burden of disease projected for that year without the impact of climate change. Negative delay values indicate the effect of climate change is to accelerate progress towards improved health.