Table 3.

Estimated burden of WSH-attributable disease in China in 2020 and 2030, presented across storylines constituting water and sanitation access development paths and RCP scenarios. The development delay attributable to climate change in 2020 and 2030 is presented for each of the twelve storylines. The 95% confidence intervals generated from a meta-analysis of α values drawn from the literature were propagated through the full analysis reported here (95% CIs).

Storyline	RCP scenario	Water and sanitation access development path	2020				2030
			Burden of disease (millions of DALYs)	95% CI	Development delay (months)	95% CI	Burden of disease (millions of DALYs)	95% CI	Development delay (months)	95% CI
0.1	reference	Maintenance level	2.42	N/A	N/A	N/A	2.10	N/A	N/A	N/A
0.2		Linear (midline)	1.36	N/A	N/A	N/A	1.02	N/A	N/A	N/A
0.3		Exponential	1.21	N/A	N/A	N/A	0.82	N/A	N/A	N/A
1.1	2.6	Maintenance level	2.53	(2.49 to 2.57)	28.7	(17.7, 40.6)	2.26	(2.20 to 2.33)	45.3	(27.5, 63.7)
1.2		Linear (midline)	1.44	(1.41 to 1.47)	7.3	(4.8, 10.0)	1.13	(1.09 to 1.18)	15.1	(9.5, 20.8)
1.3		Exponential	1.28	(1.25 to 1.31)	6.2	(3.9, 8.6)	0.93	(0.88 to 0.97)	13.1	(8.1, 18.4)
2.1	4.5	Maintenance level	2.45	(2.44 to 2.46)	5.9	(3.7, 8.7)	2.20	(2.16 to 2.23)	26.2	(16.1, 36.8)
2.2		Linear (midline)	1.38	(1.37 to 1.39)	1.6	(1.1, 2.3)	1.08	(1.06 to 1.11)	8.7	(5.5, 12.2)
2.3		Exponential	1.22	(1.22 to 1.23)	1.2	(0.8, 1.9)	0.88	(0.86 to 0.91)	7.8	(4.8, 10.9)
3.1	6.0	Maintenance level	2.45	(2.44 to 2.47)	7.9	(5.0, 11.5)	2.20	(2.16 to 2.24)	27.8	(17.1, 38.9)
3.2		Linear (midline)	1.38	(1.37 to 1.39)	1.9	(1.3, 2.8)	1.09	(1.06 to 1.12)	9.3	(5.9, 12.9)
3.3		Exponential	1.23	(1.22 to 1.24)	1.7	(1.1, 2.5)	0.88	(0.86 to 0.91)	8.1	(5.0, 11.4)
4.1	8.5	Maintenance level	2.60	(2.53 to 2.67)	48.2	(29.2, 68.3)	2.32	(2.23 to 2.41)	62.0	(37.4, 87.3)
4.2		Linear (midline)	1.50	(1.45 to 1.55)	12.7	(8.5, 17.1)	1.18	(1.12 to 1.24)	20.8	(13.1, 28.6)
4.3		Exponential	1.33	(1.29 to 1.38)	10.6	(6.8, 14.7)	0.97	(0.91 to 1.03)	18.0	(11.0, 25.1)